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Question

What is the best month for EUR/USD?

Short answer

Since 2004, December has been the strongest month for EUR/USD, averaging +0.86% and rising in 68% of 22 years. May has been the weakest, at -0.76%.

We rate the December pattern as moderate and the May pattern as weak. April comes second at +0.62%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

EUR/USD, 2004 to 2026

+0.9%+0.4%-0.4%-0.9%Jan: average -0.57%, up in 48% of 23 yearsJanFeb: average -0.25%, up in 39% of 23 yearsFebMar: average +0.29%, up in 52% of 23 yearsMarApr: average +0.62%, up in 52% of 23 yearsAprMay: average -0.76%, up in 35% of 23 yearsMayJun: average +0.15%, up in 48% of 23 yearsJunJul: average +0.32%, up in 48% of 23 yearsJulAug: average +0.06%, up in 57% of 23 yearsAugSep: average -0.27%, up in 43% of 23 yearsSepOct: average -0.28%, up in 55% of 22 yearsOctNov: average -0.23%, up in 50% of 22 yearsNovDec: average +0.86%, up in 68% of 22 yearsDec
EUR/USD: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1December+0.86%+0.81%68%moderate
2April+0.62%+0.19%52%no clear pattern
3July+0.32%-0.07%48%no clear pattern
4March+0.29%+0.30%52%no clear pattern
5June+0.15%-0.06%48%no clear pattern
6August+0.06%+0.39%57%no clear pattern
7November-0.23%+0.03%50%no clear pattern
8February-0.25%-0.12%39%no clear pattern
9September-0.27%-0.94%43%no clear pattern
10October-0.28%+0.44%55%no clear pattern
11January-0.57%-0.09%48%no clear pattern
12May-0.76%-0.48%35%weak

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Sep 20 to Oct 10Open now, 2 days left
82%lower in 22 years
Average -0.76%Median -0.98%Worst year +6.78%

Likely range of the hit rate 62% to 93%. 2004 to 2014: 64%, 2015 to 2025: 100%.

Oct 24 to Nov 13Opens in 16 days
77%lower in 22 years
Average -0.76%Median -1.15%Worst year +3.37%

Likely range of the hit rate 56% to 90%. 2004 to 2014: 73%, 2015 to 2025: 82%.

Nov 29 to Dec 9Opens in 52 days
77%higher in 22 years
Average +1.12%Median +0.37%Worst year -1.94%

Likely range of the hit rate 56% to 90%. 2004 to 2014: 73%, 2015 to 2025: 82%.

Dec 21 to Dec 31Opens in 74 days
82%higher in 22 years
Average +0.54%Median +0.48%Worst year -1.04%

Likely range of the hit rate 62% to 93%. 2004 to 2014: 82%, 2015 to 2025: 82%.

Why it might happen

  • The interest-rate gap between the ECB and the Fed and relative growth.
  • Energy prices matter because the euro area imports most of its energy.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: EUR/USD. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.