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Question

What is the best month for FTSE 100?

Short answer

Since 1984, December has been the strongest month for FTSE 100, averaging +2.15% and rising in 79% of 42 years. September has been the weakest, at -0.83%.

We rate the December pattern as strong and the September pattern as no clear pattern. April comes second at +1.91%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

FTSE 100, 1984 to 2026

+2.1%+1.1%-1.1%-2.1%Jan: average +0.49%, up in 55% of 42 yearsJanFeb: average +0.80%, up in 60% of 43 yearsFebMar: average +0.12%, up in 56% of 43 yearsMarApr: average +1.91%, up in 74% of 43 yearsAprMay: average +0.05%, up in 56% of 43 yearsMayJun: average -0.75%, up in 42% of 43 yearsJunJul: average +1.21%, up in 63% of 43 yearsJulAug: average -0.02%, up in 56% of 43 yearsAugSep: average -0.83%, up in 47% of 43 yearsSepOct: average +0.51%, up in 69% of 42 yearsOctNov: average +0.89%, up in 57% of 42 yearsNovDec: average +2.15%, up in 79% of 42 yearsDec
FTSE 100: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1December+2.15%+2.43%79%strong
2April+1.91%+2.24%74%strong
3July+1.21%+1.47%63%moderate
4November+0.89%+1.32%57%no clear pattern
5February+0.80%+0.76%60%weak
6October+0.51%+1.88%69%moderate
7January+0.49%+0.94%55%no clear pattern
8March+0.12%+0.77%56%no clear pattern
9May+0.05%+0.51%56%no clear pattern
10August-0.02%+0.23%56%no clear pattern
11June-0.75%-0.36%42%no clear pattern
12September-0.83%-0.78%47%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 8 to Feb 18Opens in 123 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +1.12%Median +1.34%Worst year -6.64%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 80%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Mar 26 to Apr 10Opens in 169 days
87%higher in 30 years
Average +1.52%Median +1.80%Worst year -8.93%

Likely range of the hit rate 71% to 95%. 1996 to 2010: 93%, 2011 to 2025: 80%. Weaker in recent years.

Sep 12 to Dec 1Open now, 54 days left
83%higher in 30 years
Average +1.48%Median +2.04%Worst year -19.37%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Dec 15 to Dec 30Opens in 68 days
87%higher in 30 years
Average +2.02%Median +2.09%Worst year -1.81%

Likely range of the hit rate 71% to 95%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Why it might happen

  • UK large caps that earn most of their revenue abroad, so a weaker pound tends to lift the index.
  • Heavy weights in oil, mining, banks, tobacco and pharma make it more value-tilted than US indices.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: FTSE 100. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.