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Question

What is the best month for Nikkei 225?

Short answer

Since 1965, December has been the strongest month for Nikkei 225, averaging +1.49% and rising in 69% of 61 years. August has been the weakest, at -0.35%.

We rate the December pattern as strong and the August pattern as no clear pattern. April comes second at +1.38%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Nikkei 225, 1965 to 2026

+1.5%+0.7%-0.7%-1.5%Jan: average +1.35%, up in 66% of 61 yearsJanFeb: average +0.76%, up in 56% of 62 yearsFebMar: average +1.08%, up in 58% of 62 yearsMarApr: average +1.38%, up in 64% of 61 yearsAprMay: average +0.64%, up in 53% of 62 yearsMayJun: average +0.66%, up in 61% of 62 yearsJunJul: average -0.07%, up in 48% of 62 yearsJulAug: average -0.35%, up in 50% of 62 yearsAugSep: average -0.34%, up in 48% of 62 yearsSepOct: average +0.40%, up in 52% of 61 yearsOctNov: average +1.29%, up in 59% of 61 yearsNovDec: average +1.49%, up in 69% of 61 yearsDec
Nikkei 225: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1December+1.49%+1.76%69%strong
2April+1.38%+1.59%64%moderate
3January+1.35%+1.46%66%moderate
4November+1.29%+1.34%59%weak
5March+1.08%+2.00%58%no clear pattern
6February+0.76%+0.63%56%no clear pattern
7June+0.66%+1.27%61%no clear pattern
8May+0.64%+0.18%53%no clear pattern
9October+0.40%+0.24%52%no clear pattern
10July-0.07%-0.06%48%no clear pattern
11September-0.34%-0.08%48%no clear pattern
12August-0.35%-0.07%50%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Oct 28 to Dec 7Opens in 20 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +3.91%Median +2.28%Worst year -3.63%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Why it might happen

  • Japan's price-weighted benchmark, heavy in exporters, so a weaker yen tends to lift it.
  • Bank of Japan policy shifts and corporate governance reforms that lifted buybacks and dividends.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Nikkei 225. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.