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Question

What is the best month for Palladium?

Short answer

Since 1998, December has been the strongest month for Palladium, averaging +4.76% and rising in 68% of 28 years. May has been the weakest, at -2.69%.

We rate the December pattern as strong and the May pattern as strong. January comes second at +3.44%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Palladium, 1998 to 2026

+4.8%+2.4%-2.4%-4.8%Jan: average +3.44%, up in 67% of 27 yearsJanFeb: average +1.91%, up in 59% of 27 yearsFebMar: average -0.17%, up in 57% of 28 yearsMarApr: average -0.14%, up in 58% of 26 yearsAprMay: average -2.69%, up in 31% of 26 yearsMayJun: average -1.54%, up in 36% of 28 yearsJunJul: average +3.16%, up in 73% of 26 yearsJulAug: average -1.46%, up in 46% of 26 yearsAugSep: average -0.47%, up in 68% of 28 yearsSepOct: average +0.65%, up in 56% of 27 yearsOctNov: average +1.03%, up in 59% of 27 yearsNovDec: average +4.76%, up in 68% of 28 yearsDec
Palladium: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1December+4.76%+4.66%68%strong
2January+3.44%+3.63%67%strong
3July+3.16%+4.43%73%strong
4February+1.91%+2.17%59%no clear pattern
5November+1.03%+1.65%59%no clear pattern
6October+0.65%+1.39%56%no clear pattern
7April-0.14%+2.61%58%no clear pattern
8March-0.17%+2.86%57%no clear pattern
9September-0.47%+2.95%68%no clear pattern
10August-1.46%-0.90%46%no clear pattern
11June-1.54%-2.24%36%weak
12May-2.69%-3.07%31%strong

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 9 to Mar 30Opens in 93 days
78%higher in 27 years
Average +6.34%Median +8.09%Worst year -28.69%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 90%. 1999 to 2011: 77%, 2012 to 2025: 79%.

Apr 19 to May 24Opens in 193 days
78%lower in 27 years
Average -4.16%Median -5.11%Worst year +19.80%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 90%. 1999 to 2011: 62%, 2012 to 2025: 71%.

Dec 21 to Dec 31Opens in 74 days
81%higher in 27 years
Average +2.64%Median +2.80%Worst year -9.26%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 92%. 1999 to 2011: 92%, 2012 to 2025: 71%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • Petrol-car autocatalysts; supply concentrated in Russia and South Africa.
  • Electric vehicles reduce long-run demand.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Palladium. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.