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Question

What is the best month for Russell 2000?

Short answer

Since 1987, December has been the strongest month for Russell 2000, averaging +2.38% and rising in 77% of 39 years. September has been the weakest, at -0.56%.

We rate the December pattern as strong and the September pattern as no clear pattern. November comes second at +2.24%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Russell 2000, 1987 to 2026

+2.4%+1.2%-1.2%-2.4%Jan: average +0.74%, up in 54% of 39 yearsJanFeb: average +1.01%, up in 59% of 39 yearsFebMar: average +0.41%, up in 67% of 39 yearsMarApr: average +1.24%, up in 59% of 39 yearsAprMay: average +1.38%, up in 67% of 39 yearsMayJun: average +0.80%, up in 64% of 39 yearsJunJul: average +0.45%, up in 56% of 39 yearsJulAug: average -0.33%, up in 54% of 39 yearsAugSep: average -0.56%, up in 56% of 39 yearsSepOct: average -0.54%, up in 56% of 39 yearsOctNov: average +2.24%, up in 69% of 39 yearsNovDec: average +2.38%, up in 77% of 39 yearsDec
Russell 2000: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1December+2.38%+2.63%77%strong
2November+2.24%+3.01%69%strong
3May+1.38%+2.12%67%strong
4April+1.24%+0.81%59%no clear pattern
5February+1.01%+0.97%59%no clear pattern
6June+0.80%+0.60%64%weak
7January+0.74%+1.25%54%no clear pattern
8July+0.45%+1.33%56%no clear pattern
9March+0.41%+1.12%67%moderate
10August-0.33%+1.64%54%no clear pattern
11October-0.54%+1.76%56%no clear pattern
12September-0.56%+0.56%56%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 6 to Feb 16Opens in 121 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +1.14%Median +1.17%Worst year -4.75%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Apr 17 to Jul 1Opens in 191 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +3.76%Median +3.64%Worst year -15.37%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 67%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Oct 10 to Dec 29Opens in 2 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +6.72%Median +5.94%Worst year -15.07%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 80%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Why it might happen

  • US small caps carry more floating-rate debt, so they react strongly to rate expectations.
  • Historically sensitive to domestic growth and credit conditions; the so-called January effect is a classic small-cap pattern.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Russell 2000. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.