What usually happens in May

The most consistent May strength has come from Nvidia (+10.91%, up 75% of years), Lean hogs (+3.61%, up 73% of years), Meta Platforms (+3.35%, up 79% of years), Alphabet (+3.28%, up 64% of years). The most consistent weakness: Live cattle (-3.75%, up 23% of years), Palladium (-2.69%, up 31% of years), BIST 100 (-2.67%, up 34% of years), Cotton (-2.21%, up 33% of years).

For the S&P 500, May has averaged +0.13% with gains in 61% of years, and an average absolute move of 3.83%.

Stronger in May

Nvidia+10.91% 75% up
Lean hogs+3.61% 73% up
Meta Platforms+3.35% 79% up
Alphabet+3.28% 64% up
Microsoft+3.13% 66% up
USD/TRY+2.79% 55% up
Walmart+2.39% 65% up
Eli Lilly+2.21% 59% up
USD/BRL+1.77% 73% up
Nasdaq Composite+1.38% 63% up

Weaker in May

Live cattle-3.75% 23% up
Palladium-2.69% 31% up
BIST 100-2.67% 34% up
Cotton-2.21% 33% up
European natural gas (TTF)-1.36% 17% up

Every market in May

US indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Nasdaq Composite	+1.38%	+2.85%	63%	56	moderate
Russell 2000	+1.38%	+2.12%	67%	39	strong
Dow Jones Industrial Average	+0.49%	+1.05%	66%	35	no clear pattern
S&P 500	+0.13%	+1.07%	61%	99	no clear pattern

European indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
DAX	+1.03%	+1.88%	64%	39	moderate
Swiss Market Index	+0.85%	+1.85%	67%	36	moderate
FTSE 100	+0.05%	+0.51%	56%	43	no clear pattern
IBEX 35	-0.21%	+0.09%	52%	33	no clear pattern
CAC 40	-0.51%	+0.10%	54%	37	no clear pattern
Euro Stoxx 50	-0.69%	+0.51%	50%	20	no clear pattern
FTSE MIB	-1.26%	-0.71%	48%	29	no clear pattern

Asia and emerging markets

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Ibovespa	+1.98%	-1.23%	44%	34	no clear pattern
KOSPI	+0.69%	+1.17%	53%	30	no clear pattern
Nikkei 225	+0.64%	+0.18%	53%	62	no clear pattern
Hang Seng	+0.43%	-0.23%	48%	40	no clear pattern
BIST 100	-2.67%	-3.48%	34%	29	moderate

US stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Nvidia	+10.91%	+5.71%	75%	28	strong
Tesla	+6.64%	+3.37%	50%	16	no clear pattern
Meta Platforms	+3.35%	+2.24%	79%	14	moderate
Alphabet	+3.28%	+5.50%	64%	22	moderate
Microsoft	+3.13%	+2.60%	66%	41	strong
Apple	+2.50%	+3.39%	54%	46	no clear pattern
Walmart	+2.39%	+1.78%	65%	54	moderate
Eli Lilly	+2.21%	+0.64%	59%	54	moderate
Amazon	+1.72%	+2.11%	62%	29	weak
JPMorgan Chase	+0.97%	+1.45%	57%	47	no clear pattern
Exxon Mobil	+0.44%	+0.35%	51%	65	no clear pattern
Berkshire Hathaway	-0.40%	-0.26%	43%	30	no clear pattern

European stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Novo Nordisk	+4.43%	+1.95%	65%	26	weak
Airbus	+3.03%	+2.76%	56%	25	weak
ASML	+2.31%	+4.74%	57%	28	no clear pattern
Nestlé	+1.28%	+1.53%	54%	37	weak
SAP	+1.25%	+1.14%	59%	29	no clear pattern
TotalEnergies	+1.08%	+0.82%	56%	27	no clear pattern
Shell	+0.98%	+0.94%	60%	30	no clear pattern
LVMH	+0.74%	+0.88%	59%	27	no clear pattern
Siemens	+0.51%	+0.50%	53%	30	no clear pattern
Allianz	-0.87%	-0.81%	43%	30	no clear pattern

Crypto

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Ether	+9.60%	-0.15%	44%	9	no clear pattern
Bitcoin	+8.08%	+3.37%	50%	12	no clear pattern
BNB	+0.81%	+0.04%	56%	9	no clear pattern
XRP	-4.72%	-2.64%	33%	9	weak
Solana	-8.64%	-8.79%	29%	7	weak

Energy

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
WTI crude oil	+2.95%	-0.57%	46%	26	no clear pattern
Natural gas (Henry Hub)	+2.55%	+1.40%	54%	26	no clear pattern
Gasoline (RBOB)	+1.64%	-0.15%	50%	26	no clear pattern
Brent crude oil	+0.80%	-1.83%	47%	19	no clear pattern
Heating oil (ULSD)	-0.26%	-1.34%	38%	26	weak
European natural gas (TTF)	-1.36%	0.00%	17%	35	moderate

Metals

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Silver	+1.03%	+0.50%	54%	26	no clear pattern
Nickel	+0.51%	+1.35%	51%	35	no clear pattern
Gold	+0.27%	-0.16%	50%	26	no clear pattern
Copper	-0.10%	+0.33%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Platinum	-0.31%	+0.23%	52%	25	no clear pattern
Aluminium	-0.65%	-0.44%	46%	35	no clear pattern
Palladium	-2.69%	-3.07%	31%	26	strong

Grains and oilseeds

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Wheat	+2.75%	+1.92%	54%	26	weak
Corn	+0.31%	-0.51%	46%	26	no clear pattern
Soybeans	+0.08%	-0.48%	50%	26	no clear pattern

Softs

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Sugar	+0.44%	-0.86%	44%	27	no clear pattern
Coffee (Arabica)	-1.29%	-2.41%	37%	27	weak
Cocoa	-1.40%	-1.87%	48%	27	no clear pattern
Cotton	-2.21%	-4.05%	33%	27	moderate

Livestock

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Lean hogs	+3.61%	+3.00%	73%	26	strong
Live cattle	-3.75%	-4.07%	23%	26	strong

Rates

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
German 10-year Bund yield	+4 bp	+7 bp	61%	70	moderate
US 10-year Treasury yield	-1 bp	+1 bp	55%	65	no clear pattern
US 2-year Treasury yield	-1 bp	-1 bp	46%	50	no clear pattern

Currencies

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
USD/TRY	+2.79%	+1.72%	55%	22	moderate
USD/BRL	+1.77%	+1.23%	73%	22	strong
US dollar index (DXY)	+0.51%	+0.56%	57%	56	weak
USD/JPY	-0.04%	-0.35%	47%	30	no clear pattern
GBP/USD	-0.38%	-0.66%	35%	23	weak
EUR/USD	-0.76%	-0.48%	35%	23	weak

Pattern ratings combine consistency across both halves of the sample, the share of up years and a t-statistic. See the methodology.

April · June

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.