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Question

What is the best month for Nvidia?

Short answer

Since 1999, May has been the strongest month for Nvidia, averaging +10.91% and rising in 75% of 28 years. September has been the weakest, at -1.65%.

We rate the May pattern as strong and the September pattern as no clear pattern. November comes second at +9.79%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Nvidia, 1999 to 2026

+10.9%+5.5%-5.5%-10.9%Jan: average +3.51%, up in 42% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +7.69%, up in 70% of 27 yearsFebMar: average +4.73%, up in 54% of 28 yearsMarApr: average +0.40%, up in 57% of 28 yearsAprMay: average +10.91%, up in 75% of 28 yearsMayJun: average -1.07%, up in 50% of 28 yearsJunJul: average -1.43%, up in 54% of 28 yearsJulAug: average +7.78%, up in 75% of 28 yearsAugSep: average -1.65%, up in 61% of 28 yearsSepOct: average +5.54%, up in 59% of 27 yearsOctNov: average +9.79%, up in 78% of 27 yearsNovDec: average +3.32%, up in 63% of 27 yearsDec
Nvidia: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1May+10.91%+5.71%75%strong
2November+9.79%+7.77%78%strong
3August+7.78%+6.62%75%strong
4February+7.69%+4.83%70%strong
5October+5.54%+5.91%59%weak
6March+4.73%+1.50%54%weak
7January+3.51%-1.61%42%no clear pattern
8December+3.32%+2.69%63%no clear pattern
9April+0.40%+1.43%57%no clear pattern
10June-1.07%-0.63%50%no clear pattern
11July-1.43%+0.80%54%no clear pattern
12September-1.65%+1.70%61%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 15 to Mar 31Opens in 99 days
81%higher in 26 years
Average +12.53%Median +7.73%Worst year -32.11%

Likely range of the hit rate 62% to 92%. 2000 to 2012: 69%, 2013 to 2025: 92%.

Apr 25 to May 30Opens in 199 days
77%higher in 26 years
Average +13.41%Median +7.10%Worst year -25.49%

Likely range of the hit rate 58% to 89%. 2000 to 2012: 69%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Aug 9 to Aug 24Opens in 305 days
85%higher in 26 years
Average +7.43%Median +4.98%Worst year -9.50%

Likely range of the hit rate 67% to 94%. 2000 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 77%. Weaker in recent years.

Oct 24 to Nov 8Opens in 16 days
96%higher in 26 years
Average +8.92%Median +6.57%Worst year -10.99%

Likely range of the hit rate 81% to 99%. 2000 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 100%.

Why it might happen

  • Data-centre GPU demand from cloud providers and AI labs, plus export rules for China.
  • Reports roughly a month after the other mega caps, so its results often reset the AI trade.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Nvidia. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.