Bitcoin's strongest seasonal month arrives late in the halving cycle
October has been bitcoin's best month in our data. The current cycle is past the window where previous cycles peaked.
What happened
Bitcoin traded at $86,281.11 and Ether at $2,715.95 on the morning of October 6. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $89.8M on October 5 after inflows of $241M in the week to October 2 and $2.39B in the week to September 25. The SEC proposed a 760-page crypto custody rule on October 1 with a 60-day comment period.
Sources: Fortune, The Crypto Times, CoinDesk. Details
Why it matters
ETF flows have become the clearest daily read on institutional demand. A custody framework from the SEC would lower one of the remaining barriers for banks and advisers, though the comment period means no rule takes effect this year.
What history shows
In our data bitcoin is -31.23% below its all-time high and -30.54% over a year, but +34.05% over three months.
The last halving was 899 days ago. In the two previous cycles in our data, bitcoin peaked 525 and 546 days after the halving; in this cycle the high so far came 534 days after it.
Seasonal backdrop
October is bitcoin's strongest month in our data, averaging +16.63% with gains in 75% of 12 years. The sample is short, so one or two extreme years carry a lot of weight.
Scenarios
Possible paths and the signs that would point to each. No probabilities. Testable ones are graded on the scorecard.
Seasonal strength
ETF inflows resume and October follows its seasonal record.
- Multi-day ETF inflows
- Break above the recent range
Late-cycle drift
The post-halving cycle has already peaked and rallies fade as in past late-cycle phases.
- Persistent ETF outflows
- Lower highs
What to watch
- Daily spot ETF flows
- SEC custody rule comments
- October 28: Fed decision
Sources and method (3)
- Bitcoin traded at $86,281.11 and Ether at $2,715.95 on the morning of October 6. Fortune, Oct 6
- US spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $89.8M on October 5, after net inflows of $241M in the week to October 2 and $2.39B in the week to September 25. The Crypto Times, Oct 6
- On October 1 the SEC proposed a 760-page crypto custody rule with a 60-day comment period. CoinDesk, Oct 1