Gold waits for US CPI after the Fed signals one more hike
Gold has slid for two days. History shows mixed results after Fed hikes.
What happened
Gold held a two-day slide as the Fed signaled one more hike, with US CPI in focus. New York Fed President John Williams reaffirmed his view that the US Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates once more this year. Gold prices were mixed amid a weaker dollar and subdued oil.
Sources: Cointelegraph, Investing.com. Details
Why it matters
Gold pays no interest, so expectations for higher rates tend to weigh on it. It trades at 4,177.30 as of October 13, 2026, which is -21.46% from its 52-week high and -5.25% over one month.
What history shows
After Fed hikes in our data, gold averaged +0.97% over the next 20 trading days across 38 cases. It was higher in 58% of them.
After the first hike of a cycle, the 20-day average was +0.02% across 4 cases.
Seasonal backdrop
October ranks near the bottom for gold, with an average of +0.13%. November is better, with an average of +1.33% and gains in 58% of years.
Scenarios
Possible paths and the signs that would point to each. No probabilities. Testable ones are graded on the scorecard.
Hot inflation
A strong CPI print firms up hike expectations and keeps pressure on gold.
- Core inflation above forecasts
- Two-year Treasury yields rising
Soft core reading
A softer core rate eases hike fears and gold recovers part of its monthly loss.
- Core inflation below forecasts
- A weaker dollar index
What to watch
- The coming US CPI release
- Further Fed speakers on the rate path
Sources and method (3)
- New York Fed President John Williams reaffirmed his view that the US Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates once more this year. Cointelegraph, Oct 14
- Gold held a two-day slide as the Fed signaled one more hike, with US CPI in focus. Investing.com, Oct 14
- Gold prices were mixed amid a weaker dollar and subdued oil, with focus now on US CPI data. Investing.com, Oct 13