KOSPI sinks far below its usual October path, with November next
A chip-led rout has pushed Korea's index well against its seasonal record.
What happened
The KOSPI finished Thursday 7.5% lower at 5,554 points, its lowest close since April 8. Weekly losses reached 15.5%. SK Hynix fell 11% and Samsung Electronics 9.5%, as worries about AI debt, foreign outflows and Chinese competition hit tech.
Sources: Cointelegraph. Details
Why it matters
The KOSPI leans heavily on a few chipmakers, so a handful of stocks can move the whole index. The drop also lifts risk across Asia and crypto.
What history shows
Before this week the index was up +31.80% year to date and +51.87% over twelve months, so the slide follows a very strong run.
Seasonal backdrop
October is a soft month for Korean stocks: the KOSPI has averaged -0.43% in October since 1997, rising in only 45% of 29 years. This October is running at -18.77% so far, far below that mild average. November has a better record, with an average of +2.91% and a median of +0.83%, and a last ten year average of +2.11%. The gap between average and median shows a few big months drive that number.
Scenarios
Possible paths and the signs that would point to each. No probabilities. Testable ones are graded on the scorecard.
Seasonal rebound
Chip stocks stabilise and November's usual lift shows up.
- SK Hynix and Samsung stop falling
- Foreign investors cut net selling
Trend break extends
AI debt worries keep pressure on chipmakers and the index stays under its long trend line.
- Another close below the long-term moving average
- Further moves in the won
What to watch
- Next moves in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics
- Whether the index holds its long-term moving average
Sources and method (2)
- The KOSPI finished Thursday 7.5% lower at 5,554 points, its lowest close since April 8, taking week-to-date losses to 15.5%. Cointelegraph, Oct 15
- SK Hynix fell 11% and Samsung Electronics finished 9.5% lower as tech stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off, with concerns over AI debt obligations, foreign capital outflows and competition from China cited. Cointelegraph, Oct 15