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German 10-year Bund yield: seasonality, event history and insights

In October, German 10-year Bund yield has averaged +1 bp and risen in 47% of 70 years (1956 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.

Latest monthly average: 3.18% (2026-08), +11 bp on the month.

+6 bp+3 bp-3 bp-6 bpJan: average -2 bp, up in 34% of 70 yearsJanFeb: average +1 bp, up in 37% of 70 yearsFebMar: average +2 bp, up in 46% of 70 yearsMarApr: average -1 bp, up in 40% of 70 yearsAprMay: average +4 bp, up in 61% of 70 yearsMayJun: average +6 bp, up in 46% of 71 yearsJunJul: average 0 bp, up in 42% of 71 yearsJulAug: average -5 bp, up in 31% of 71 yearsAugSep: average -1 bp, up in 40% of 70 yearsSepOct: average +1 bp, up in 47% of 70 yearsOctNov: average -4 bp, up in 30% of 70 yearsNovDec: average -5 bp, up in 33% of 70 yearsDec
German 10-year Bund yield: average change by calendar month, 1956 to 2026. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.

Month by month

MonthAverageMedianUp yearsLast 10 yearsBestWorstYearsPattern
January-2 bp-1 bp34%+9 bp+39 bp 2000-50 bp 197570no clear pattern
February+1 bp0 bp37%+6 bp+88 bp 1990-58 bp 199170no clear pattern
March+2 bp0 bp46%+6 bp+100 bp 1980-30 bp 198670no clear pattern
April-1 bp0 bp40%+3 bp+46 bp 2022-50 bp 198270no clear pattern
May+4 bp+7 bp61%+4 bp+50 bp 1979-110 bp 198070moderate
June+6 bp0 bp46%0 bp+70 bp 1973-20 bp 198071moderate
July0 bp0 bp42%-3 bp+36 bp 2003-40 bp 195871no clear pattern
August-5 bp-9 bp31%-5 bp+45 bp 1990-53 bp 201171strong
September-1 bp0 bp40%+12 bp+76 bp 2022-40 bp 198270weak
October+1 bp0 bp47%+9 bp+39 bp 2022-40 bp 198170no clear pattern
November-4 bp-3 bp30%-2 bp+40 bp 1972-50 bp 198770strong
December-5 bp-2 bp33%-5 bp+38 bp 2010-60 bp 197470strong

Changes in the yield in basis points (1 bp = 0.01 percentage point). OECD monthly long-term rate, via FRED. Source: FRED (IRLTLT01DEM156N). Download monthly data (CSV).

What drives German 10-year Bund yield

Sell in May for German 10-year Bund yield

From 1957 to 2025, the November to April half averaged -10 bp and the May to October half +3 bp. The winter half did better in 45% of 69 years. Compare all markets.

Year by year

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2026-1-61795-81111
202530-834-235-41142-8416
20247162107-4-3-25-468-13
202311181-2-23891216-22-50
2022272613462149-36-57639-122
20214148410-7-16-91816-11-7
2020-1-15-89-78-900-8-10
2019-5-8-4-5-10-18-7-26513125
20181818-13-5-3-12-5283-9-13
2017019-1211-921-1103-6-1
2016-11-260-40-15-14259196
2015-20-9-7-114324-8-105-1403
2014-4-20-5-5-13-6-15-16-3-13-7-13
2013213-19-16102441715-13-912
2012-113-2-21-29-4-61015-2-13-4
20111018113-28-17-15-53-3817-135

Change in basis points. Most recent years at the top.

Latest insights on German 10-year Bund yield

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Questions

What is the best month for German 10-year Bund yield?

Since 1956, June has had the highest average move for German 10-year Bund yield at +6 bp, rising in 46% of 71 years. May has the highest share of positive years (61%).

What is the worst month for German 10-year Bund yield?

August has had the weakest average move at -5 bp, rising in 31% of 71 years.

How does German 10-year Bund yield usually do in October?

German 10-year Bund yield has averaged +1 bp in October (median 0 bp), rising in 47% of 70 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.