Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records

The 30-year yield closed at its highest in over 24 years on the same day the Nasdaq printed its 23rd record of 2026.

Published October 6, 2026 in the daily brief · Markets: Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, US 10-year Treasury yield, Nvidia

What happened

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on October 5 and the 30-year at 5.66%, the highest daily close in over 24 years. On the same day the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05% to a record 27,477, its 23rd record close of 2026, and Nvidia closed at a record $238.90.

• The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on October 5. Source: The Motley Fool, Oct 5
• The US 30-year yield closed at 5.66%, the highest daily close in over 24 years. Source: Saxo, Oct 6
• The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,477 on October 5, up 1.05%, its 23rd record close of 2026. The S&P 500 closed at 7,773.95. Source: Saxo, Oct 5
• Nvidia closed at a record $238.90 on October 5. Source: The Motley Fool, Oct 5

Why it matters

Higher long-term yields raise the discount rate applied to future profits, which usually weighs most on long-duration growth stocks. This time the market is looking through it, led by AI-linked earnings. If yields keep rising, the gap between bond and equity pricing becomes the main risk to watch.

What history shows

In our data the Nasdaq is +18.22% year to date and +20.62% over a year, while the 10-year yield is +110 bp since the end of 2025.

November has been one of the Nasdaq's two strongest months since 1971, averaging +2.06% with gains in 71% of 55 years.

Seasonal backdrop

October itself has no clear pattern for the Nasdaq (average +0.77%, up in 55% of years), and for the 10-year yield the average October change is -1 bp.

Markets in this insight

Latest close (October 6, 2026). The figures in the text above are as of publication.

Scenarios

Scenarios describe plausible paths and the signs that would point to each. They are not forecasts, and we do not assign them probabilities. Where a scenario names a market and a direction, our scorecard checks it after the horizon ends.

What to watch

• Treasury auction results
• October 14: September CPI
• October 15: TSMC results

How this was made: facts were collected and checked against the cited pages; every historical figure is computed by our code from Yahoo Finance and FRED price history and inserted automatically, as of the close of October 5, 2026. The explanation was written by our editors. Editorial policy.