Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rain

Three soft commodities with very different October records and very different supply stories.

What happened

Raw sugar traded at 20.88 cents a pound on October 6, up 15.34% over the month, and StoneX forecasts a 0.9 million tonne deficit in 2026/27. ICE cocoa stocks of 3,481,504 bags were the highest in 2.25 years and Ivory Coast shipments are up 19.8% for the season. Arabica coffee rose 4.34% to 305.24 cents with Brazilian rain hurting bean quality and certified stocks near 27-year lows.

Sources: Trading Economics. Details

Why it matters

Softs are driven by a handful of producing countries and their harvest calendars, which is why their seasonal patterns are among the most consistent in our data. Supply news this month lines up with those calendars for cocoa and sugar.

What history shows

In our data sugar is +36.20% over three months and cocoa -53.31% below its all-time high.

Seasonal backdrop

October has been one of cocoa's weakest months, averaging -2.80% and rising in only 35% of years, as the West African main crop begins. Sugar has averaged +3.28% in October, rising in 65% of years. Lean hogs have the strongest negative October pattern in our whole dataset, averaging -5.56% with gains in only 28% of years.

Scenarios

Possible paths and the signs that would point to each. No probabilities. Testable ones are graded on the scorecard.

Cocoa follows the calendar

Main-crop arrivals and high exchange stocks keep pressure on cocoa.

Rising port arrivals in Ivory Coast

Cocoa down in 30 days, open (0.00% so far)

Sugar deficit priced further

Deficit forecasts and Brazilian mills favouring ethanol support sugar.

Lower sugar mix in UNICA reports

Sugar up in 30 days, open (0.00% so far)

What to watch

Ivory Coast arrivals data
UNICA crush reports
ICE certified stocks

Sources and method (3)

Raw sugar traded at 20.88 cents a pound on October 6, up 15.34% over the month. StoneX forecasts a 0.9 million tonne deficit in 2026/27. Trading Economics, Oct 6
ICE cocoa stocks of 3,481,504 bags on September 30 were the highest in 2.25 years, and Ivory Coast shipments were up 19.8% for the season. Trading Economics, Oct 6
Arabica coffee rose 4.34% to 305.24 cents a pound on October 6, with Brazilian rain hurting bean quality and certified stocks near 27-year lows. Trading Economics, Oct 6

Historical figures are computed by our code from Yahoo Finance and FRED price history as of the close of October 5, 2026. The text was written by our editors. Editorial policy.