Bitcoin's strongest month is lifting after China's data surprise
Bitcoin rallied on Monday, yet October is still negative so far.
What happened
Bitcoin jumped to $82,500 as China's GDP beat estimates and oil prices fell, lifting risk appetite across Asia. Bitcoin sits at -2.60% for October so far.
Sources: CoinDesk. Details
Why it matters
Bitcoin has traded as a risk asset in recent weeks. Macro data from China and moves in oil now reach it quickly.
What history shows
Bitcoin has risen in 75% of Octobers since 2014.
The median October move is +12.94%.
Seasonal backdrop
October is Bitcoin's strongest month on record, averaging +16.63% (rank 1 of 12) across 12 years, and the last ten years average +17.91%. This year runs against the season: Bitcoin is -2.60% for the month. November has averaged +7.51% with 58% of Novembers up, a smaller tailwind. With few days left in October, the gap between the seasonal average and this year's result is wide.
Scenarios
Possible paths and the signs that would point to each. No probabilities. Testable ones are graded on the scorecard.
Season catches up
Risk appetite from Asia carries into the final two weeks of October and trims the monthly loss.
- Nasdaq futures stay firm
- Oil prices keep falling
Rate worries cap the move
Rate hike bets keep a lid on risk assets and October ends below its usual path.
- Treasury yields rise again
- Equity volatility climbs
What to watch
- Nasdaq futures
- Treasury yields
- October monthly close
Sources and method (1)
- Bitcoin jumped to $82,500 and Asian stocks and Nasdaq futures rose as China GDP beat estimates and oil prices fell. CoinDesk, Oct 19