Bitcoin's strongest month is under strain after a drop to $80,154
October usually favours Bitcoin. This year it has not.
What happened
Bitcoin hit $80,154 on Bitstamp, a level last seen on Sept. 20, as it tracked losses in South Korean stocks. Bets on an October Fed rate hike briefly spiked to nearly 50% after Wednesday's inflation report, but have since cooled.
Sources: Cointelegraph, CoinDesk. Details
Why it matters
Bitcoin trades like a risk asset when stock markets fall and rate hike bets rise. That link has dominated this week.
What history shows
Bitcoin was -34.62% from its all time high and -6.80% year to date at the last close in our data.
Seasonal backdrop
October is Bitcoin's best month by average: +16.63% since 2014, with a median of +12.94% and gains in 75% of 12 years. The last ten year average is +17.91%. This October is at -2.38% so far, so the month is running against its season. November has been weaker, with an average of +7.51% and gains in 58% of years. With only 12 Octobers on record, the pattern rests on a small sample.
Scenarios
Possible paths and the signs that would point to each. No probabilities. Testable ones are graded on the scorecard.
Late October catch up
Rate hike fears fade and the usual October lift arrives in the last two weeks.
- Fed hike odds stay low
- Asian stocks stabilise
Macro pressure persists
Hot inflation and the tech sell-off keep crypto under its recent range.
- Hike bets rise again
- Further falls in Asian chip stocks
What to watch
- Fed hike pricing after the CPI report
- KOSPI and Asian tech stocks as a risk gauge
Sources and method (2)
- Bitcoin hit $80,154 on Bitstamp, a level last seen on Sept. 20, as crypto tracked the losses in South Korean stocks. Cointelegraph, Oct 15
- Bets on an October Fed rate hike briefly spiked to nearly 50% after Wednesday's inflation report, but have since cooled. CoinDesk, Oct 15