ECB rate decisions and market reactions
The latest ECB move was a 25 bp hike on September 10, 2026, taking the rate from 2.25% to 2.50%. Across 31 hikes, the S&P 500 averaged 0.00% over the next 20 trading days.
We measured how European and global markets moved after every change in the ECB deposit facility rate since 1999.
Reactions by type of decision
All changes
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 61 | -0.24% | -1.09% | +0.36% | +0.54% | 58% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 61 | -0.20% | -1.12% | +0.71% | +0.97% | 57% |
| Russell 2000 | 61 | -0.18% | -1.35% | 0.00% | +1.19% | 55% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 61 | -0.32% | -1.07% | +0.36% | +1.21% | 60% |
| DAX | 61 | -0.18% | -0.73% | +0.71% | +2.09% | 62% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 39 | -0.16% | -0.97% | -0.08% | -0.44% | 47% |
| CAC 40 | 61 | -0.15% | -0.95% | +0.09% | +0.96% | 58% |
| FTSE 100 | 61 | -0.08% | -0.68% | +0.02% | +0.55% | 53% |
| Gold | 55 | -0.05% | -0.04% | +0.59% | +0.08% | 50% |
| Silver | 55 | -0.43% | +0.03% | +1.00% | -0.41% | 50% |
| WTI crude oil | 55 | +0.28% | +0.21% | -2.29% | -1.07% | 48% |
| Copper | 55 | -0.44% | -1.20% | -0.73% | -0.64% | 43% |
| Bitcoin | 23 | +0.05% | +1.28% | +0.51% | -0.29% | 48% |
| Ether | 21 | -0.08% | -0.14% | -1.94% | -2.64% | 38% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 61 | 0 bp | +4 bp | +5 bp | +1 bp | 53% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 61 | -1 bp | +3 bp | +3 bp | +2 bp | 58% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 61 | +0.04% | +0.34% | +0.46% | +0.52% | 58% |
| EUR/USD | 46 | -0.03% | +0.05% | -0.18% | -0.53% | 47% |
| USD/JPY | 61 | -0.11% | +0.20% | -0.27% | -0.32% | 45% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 61 | -0.27% | -1.68% | +0.76% | +0.55% | 60% |
Hikes
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 31 | +0.26% | -0.80% | 0.00% | +0.43% | 57% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 31 | +0.47% | -0.61% | +0.23% | +0.77% | 57% |
| Russell 2000 | 31 | +0.28% | -1.03% | -0.17% | +1.48% | 60% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 31 | +0.15% | -0.74% | +0.16% | +1.03% | 60% |
| DAX | 31 | +0.06% | -0.07% | +0.96% | +2.53% | 67% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 17 | +0.12% | -0.57% | -0.07% | +0.69% | 56% |
| CAC 40 | 31 | +0.08% | -0.18% | +0.87% | +2.01% | 70% |
| FTSE 100 | 31 | +0.14% | -0.03% | +0.32% | +1.48% | 57% |
| Gold | 26 | -0.36% | -0.24% | +0.30% | -0.23% | 48% |
| Silver | 26 | -0.72% | -0.24% | +0.88% | +0.47% | 52% |
| WTI crude oil | 26 | +0.37% | +0.20% | -2.19% | +0.14% | 52% |
| Copper | 26 | -0.28% | -1.08% | -0.44% | -0.25% | 44% |
| Bitcoin | 12 | 0.00% | +1.70% | +1.23% | -0.46% | 42% |
| Ether | 12 | +0.07% | +0.76% | +0.08% | -0.71% | 50% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 31 | 0 bp | +3 bp | +4 bp | +1 bp | 53% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 31 | -1 bp | +4 bp | +6 bp | +3 bp | 57% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 31 | +0.27% | +0.49% | +0.47% | +0.49% | 60% |
| EUR/USD | 24 | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.21% | +0.33% | 52% |
| USD/JPY | 31 | -0.07% | +0.46% | -0.10% | +0.51% | 57% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 31 | +0.61% | -0.81% | -0.03% | +0.55% | 60% |
Cuts
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 30 | -0.76% | -1.39% | +0.71% | +1.05% | 60% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 30 | -0.89% | -1.64% | +1.18% | +1.82% | 57% |
| Russell 2000 | 30 | -0.66% | -1.68% | +0.16% | +0.07% | 50% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 30 | -0.79% | -1.40% | +0.57% | +1.39% | 60% |
| DAX | 30 | -0.44% | -1.42% | +0.46% | +1.88% | 57% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 22 | -0.38% | -1.29% | -0.08% | -1.24% | 41% |
| CAC 40 | 30 | -0.38% | -1.73% | -0.69% | -0.45% | 47% |
| FTSE 100 | 30 | -0.31% | -1.35% | -0.29% | +0.18% | 50% |
| Gold | 29 | +0.22% | +0.14% | +0.84% | +0.38% | 52% |
| Silver | 29 | -0.17% | +0.27% | +1.10% | -1.30% | 48% |
| WTI crude oil | 29 | +0.19% | +0.21% | -2.38% | -1.36% | 45% |
| Copper | 29 | -0.58% | -1.31% | -0.98% | -1.37% | 41% |
| Bitcoin | 11 | +0.10% | +0.83% | -0.28% | +0.40% | 55% |
| Ether | 9 | -0.29% | -1.34% | -4.63% | -7.22% | 22% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 30 | 0 bp | +6 bp | +6 bp | +2 bp | 53% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 30 | -2 bp | +1 bp | -1 bp | +1 bp | 60% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 30 | -0.19% | +0.19% | +0.44% | +0.53% | 57% |
| EUR/USD | 22 | -0.05% | +0.20% | -0.15% | -0.85% | 41% |
| USD/JPY | 30 | -0.16% | -0.07% | -0.44% | -0.58% | 33% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 30 | -1.17% | -2.58% | +1.54% | +0.57% | 60% |
First hike of a cycle
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6 | +0.06% | -1.84% | -0.56% | +2.20% | 67% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 6 | +0.29% | -1.28% | +1.19% | +2.48% | 67% |
| Russell 2000 | 6 | +0.02% | -2.49% | -1.83% | +2.55% | 67% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 6 | +0.05% | -1.94% | +0.03% | +2.66% | 67% |
| DAX | 6 | -0.08% | -1.22% | +0.66% | +3.37% | 83% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 4 | -0.28% | -1.85% | -2.40% | +1.31% | 50% |
| CAC 40 | 6 | +0.01% | -0.93% | +0.79% | +2.81% | 83% |
| FTSE 100 | 6 | +0.03% | -0.71% | +0.05% | +2.87% | 67% |
| Gold | 5 | -0.55% | +2.69% | -0.93% | +1.59% | 60% |
| Silver | 5 | -2.16% | +1.85% | -5.23% | -7.41% | 40% |
| WTI crude oil | 5 | -1.93% | -5.52% | -13.82% | -13.84% | 20% |
| Copper | 5 | -0.06% | -1.25% | -4.50% | -0.25% | 40% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 6 | -6 bp | -7 bp | -4 bp | -5 bp | 50% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 6 | -8 bp | -8 bp | -4 bp | 0 bp | 50% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 6 | +0.37% | +0.21% | +1.31% | +0.27% | 50% |
| EUR/USD | 5 | -0.33% | +1.49% | -0.92% | -0.59% | 40% |
| USD/JPY | 6 | +0.05% | +0.34% | -3.11% | -2.48% | 17% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 6 | +0.95% | -2.72% | -2.70% | +0.06% | 50% |
First cut of a cycle
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6 | -0.99% | -3.78% | -3.90% | +1.04% | 67% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 6 | -1.14% | -4.33% | -3.85% | -0.45% | 33% |
| Russell 2000 | 6 | -1.05% | -4.43% | -4.91% | -1.07% | 33% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 6 | -0.77% | -3.03% | -1.94% | +1.51% | 67% |
| DAX | 6 | -0.61% | -3.61% | -3.39% | +0.49% | 50% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 4 | -1.26% | -6.36% | -7.65% | -6.98% | 25% |
| CAC 40 | 6 | -0.52% | -4.33% | -5.23% | -2.69% | 33% |
| FTSE 100 | 6 | -0.88% | -3.38% | -3.84% | -0.98% | 33% |
| Gold | 5 | -0.74% | +0.57% | -2.33% | +0.38% | 60% |
| Silver | 5 | -2.46% | -2.81% | -6.48% | -3.64% | 20% |
| WTI crude oil | 5 | -1.37% | -2.40% | -9.15% | -1.70% | 40% |
| Copper | 5 | -1.80% | -6.00% | -9.54% | -1.58% | 20% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 6 | -1 bp | +5 bp | -7 bp | +8 bp | 67% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 6 | -4 bp | -1 bp | -9 bp | -5 bp | 50% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 6 | +0.42% | +1.05% | +2.28% | +1.93% | 83% |
| EUR/USD | 4 | -0.76% | +0.78% | -3.21% | -2.03% | 0% |
| USD/JPY | 6 | -0.24% | -0.08% | -2.03% | -1.37% | 17% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 6 | +0.92% | -5.60% | -10.28% | -7.20% | 17% |
Cuts of 50 bp or more
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 10 | -2.03% | -3.25% | -0.54% | +0.34% | 50% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 10 | -2.14% | -3.77% | +0.51% | +1.59% | 60% |
| Russell 2000 | 10 | -2.03% | -3.56% | +0.07% | +0.54% | 50% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 10 | -2.15% | -3.04% | +0.06% | -0.21% | 50% |
| DAX | 10 | -1.57% | -2.43% | +0.33% | +5.28% | 70% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5 | -2.93% | -4.72% | -2.95% | -1.33% | 40% |
| CAC 40 | 10 | -1.48% | -2.57% | -0.60% | +0.83% | 70% |
| FTSE 100 | 10 | -1.13% | -2.02% | -0.01% | +0.13% | 50% |
| Gold | 9 | +0.36% | +1.68% | +3.28% | +3.04% | 67% |
| Silver | 9 | -1.48% | +0.80% | +4.06% | +3.21% | 78% |
| WTI crude oil | 9 | -1.17% | -1.73% | -7.16% | -5.23% | 33% |
| Copper | 9 | -2.22% | -3.59% | -3.92% | -2.76% | 33% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 10 | -6 bp | +6 bp | +4 bp | +5 bp | 50% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 10 | -9 bp | -5 bp | -4 bp | -6 bp | 50% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 10 | -0.07% | +0.16% | -0.05% | -0.01% | 50% |
| EUR/USD | 5 | -0.77% | +1.06% | +0.59% | -1.63% | 40% |
| USD/JPY | 10 | -0.49% | -0.69% | -1.79% | -0.71% | 30% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 10 | -2.25% | -4.15% | -0.10% | +0.58% | 60% |
Recent decisions
| Date | Move | Rate after | S&P 500, 5 days | Gold, 5 days | 10-year yield, 5 days | Dollar index, 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 10, 2026 | +25 bp | 2.50% | -1.11% | -1.64% | +18 bp | +1.56% |
| June 11, 2026 | +25 bp | 2.25% | +2.11% | +6.00% | -6 bp | +0.14% |
| June 5, 2025 | -25 bp | 2.00% | +0.86% | -1.63% | +4 bp | -0.16% |
| April 17, 2025 | -25 bp | 2.25% | +3.96% | +0.07% | +3 bp | -0.09% |
| March 6, 2025 | -25 bp | 2.50% | -4.16% | +0.71% | +4 bp | -2.01% |
| January 30, 2025 | -25 bp | 2.75% | +0.37% | +4.45% | -12 bp | -0.39% |
| December 12, 2024 | -25 bp | 3.00% | -3.48% | -3.75% | +24 bp | +1.24% |
| October 17, 2024 | -25 bp | 3.25% | -0.77% | +1.42% | +22 bp | +0.81% |
| September 12, 2024 | -25 bp | 3.50% | +1.15% | +2.21% | +5 bp | -1.06% |
| June 6, 2024 | -25 bp | 3.75% | +1.25% | -0.87% | +2 bp | +0.36% |
| September 14, 2023 | +25 bp | 4.00% | -1.46% | +1.79% | +10 bp | +0.37% |
| July 27, 2023 | +25 bp | 3.75% | -1.17% | +0.25% | +22 bp | +1.69% |
| June 15, 2023 | +25 bp | 3.50% | +0.21% | -2.30% | -3 bp | -0.60% |
| May 4, 2023 | +25 bp | 3.25% | +1.15% | 0.00% | +5 bp | +0.14% |
| March 16, 2023 | +50 bp | 3.00% | +1.16% | +0.95% | -3 bp | -2.20% |
| February 2, 2023 | +50 bp | 2.50% | -0.03% | -2.68% | +24 bp | +2.16% |
How we measure it
Each reaction starts at the last close before the announcement day. Day 1 is the close on the announcement day, day 5 and day 20 are five and twenty sessions later. Decision dates are derived from the ECB deposit facility rate on FRED (ECBDFR): each change takes effect the week after the Thursday decision, so we date the event to that Thursday. The average hides a wide spread, and markets often price a decision well before it happens, so the surprise matters more than the move itself.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.