Oil (Brent) price outlook: what does history say?
We do not forecast prices. Here is what history says for the coming months. October has averaged -1.01% for Brent crude oil, higher in 53% of 19 years (no clear pattern); November has averaged -2.91% for Brent crude oil, higher in 47% of 19 years (no clear pattern); December has averaged -0.59% for Brent crude oil, higher in 53% of 19 years (no clear pattern).
Brent crude oil is +80.54% this year and +22.19% against its 200-day average. History describes tendencies; it does not predict a given year.
This year against a typical year
The next three months in history
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Worst year | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | -1.01% | +0.43% | 53% | -33.46% | no clear pattern |
| November | -2.91% | -0.30% | 47% | -22.21% | no clear pattern |
| December | -0.59% | +0.56% | 53% | -18.28% | no clear pattern |
What to watch
- Scheduled events on the calendar, such as central bank decisions and data releases.
- Whether Brent crude oil keeps up with its usual seasonal path on the market page.
- The market outlook for the wider picture, updated every weekday.
More questions
Is Brent crude oil expected to go up?
We do not make forecasts. In the past, October has averaged -1.01% for Brent crude oil, higher in 53% of 19 years.
What is the best month for Brent crude oil?
See the full ranking on our best-month page for Brent crude oil, with every month's average, median and share of up years.
Where do these numbers come from?
Daily closes from public price data, computed by our code and updated every weekday. History is not a forecast.
Where the data comes from
Daily closes from Yahoo Finance and FRED, computed by our code, as of October 16, 2026. More on Brent crude oil. How to read these numbers: guide. Not investment advice.
Questions, ideas or corrections?
Write to us. We read every email.
Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.