Will the stock market crash? What history says
Nobody can time a crash, and we do not forecast one. History shows how often and how deep they have been: since 1927 the S&P 500 has had 27 bear markets (falls of 20% or more), 13 of them since 1950. The median one fell -32.90% over 240 days and took 650 days from the low to regain the old high.
Today the index is -2.04% from its record close. Bear markets are dated here by the common rule: a 20% fall from a high, ending when the index rises 20% from the low.
Every bear market since 1927
| Peak | Low | Fall | Days to the low | Days back to the old high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 3, 2022 | October 12, 2022 | -25.40% | 282 | 464 |
| February 19, 2020 | March 23, 2020 | -33.90% | 33 | 148 |
| January 6, 2009 | March 9, 2009 | -27.60% | 62 | 84 |
| October 9, 2007 | November 20, 2008 | -51.90% | 408 | 1589 |
| January 4, 2002 | July 23, 2002 | -32.00% | 200 | 842 |
| March 24, 2000 | September 21, 2001 | -36.80% | 546 | 2077 |
| August 25, 1987 | December 4, 1987 | -33.50% | 101 | 600 |
| November 28, 1980 | August 12, 1982 | -27.10% | 622 | 83 |
| January 11, 1973 | October 3, 1974 | -48.20% | 630 | 2114 |
| November 29, 1968 | May 26, 1970 | -36.10% | 543 | 650 |
| February 9, 1966 | October 7, 1966 | -22.20% | 240 | 209 |
| December 12, 1961 | June 26, 1962 | -28.00% | 196 | 434 |
| August 2, 1956 | October 22, 1957 | -21.50% | 446 | 337 |
| June 15, 1948 | June 13, 1949 | -20.60% | 363 | 210 |
| May 29, 1946 | May 19, 1947 | -28.50% | 355 | 1117 |
| November 7, 1940 | April 28, 1942 | -34.40% | 537 | 335 |
| October 25, 1939 | June 10, 1940 | -31.90% | 229 | 1491 |
| October 10, 1938 | April 11, 1939 | -25.10% | 183 | 2136 |
| March 10, 1937 | March 31, 1938 | -54.50% | 386 | 2861 |
| February 6, 1934 | March 14, 1935 | -31.80% | 401 | 180 |
| July 18, 1933 | October 19, 1933 | -29.40% | 93 | 733 |
| September 7, 1932 | February 27, 1933 | -40.60% | 173 | 88 |
| November 9, 1931 | June 1, 1932 | -61.80% | 205 | 397 |
| June 26, 1931 | October 5, 1931 | -42.50% | 101 | 1645 |
| February 24, 1931 | June 2, 1931 | -32.90% | 98 | 2080 |
| April 10, 1930 | December 16, 1930 | -44.30% | 250 | 8029 |
| September 16, 1929 | November 13, 1929 | -44.60% | 58 | 9079 |
What tends to come before a bear market
Bear markets have followed very different triggers: the 1929 crash, the oil shock of the 1970s, the dot-com bust in 2000, the financial crisis in 2008, the pandemic in 2020 and the inflation and rate shock of 2022. Several, but not all, overlapped with recessions. That is why we show the record and the signposts rather than a probability.
How stocks did in recessions · Which months had the biggest falls · S&P 500 page
More questions
How often does the stock market crash?
By the 20% rule, the S&P 500 has entered a bear market 27 times since 1927, about once every 4 years on average, though they have come in clusters.
How long do bear markets last?
The median bear market took 240 calendar days from the high to the low. Getting back to the old high took a median of 650 days from the low.
What is the difference between a correction and a crash?
A correction usually means a fall of 10% to 20% from a high, and a bear market a fall of 20% or more. A crash is a very fast fall, such as October 1987 or March 2020.
Where the data comes from
Daily closes from Yahoo Finance and FRED, computed by our code, as of October 16, 2026. More on S&P 500. How to read these numbers: guide. Not investment advice.
Questions, ideas or corrections?
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.