How do stocks perform in a recession?
Across the last 15 US recessions dated by the NBER, the S&P 500 changed -6.40% on average from the month before each recession began to the month it ended, and fell in 8 of them. In the 12 months after a recession ended it averaged +17.60% and rose in 12 of 15.
Stocks often fall before a recession is officially declared and start recovering before it ends, because the NBER dates recessions months after the fact. The latest data (2026-09) does not show a US recession.
Every US recession in our data
| Recession | Months | S&P 500 during | 6 months before | 12 months after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03 to 2020-04 | 2 | -1.40% | +0.90% | +43.60% |
| 2008-01 to 2009-06 | 18 | -37.40% | -2.30% | +12.10% |
| 2001-04 to 2001-11 | 8 | -1.80% | -19.20% | -17.80% |
| 1990-08 to 1991-03 | 8 | +5.40% | +8.20% | +7.60% |
| 1981-08 to 1982-11 | 16 | +5.80% | +1.10% | +20.10% |
| 1980-02 to 1980-07 | 6 | +6.60% | +10.00% | +7.60% |
| 1973-12 to 1975-03 | 16 | -13.10% | -8.60% | +23.30% |
| 1970-01 to 1970-11 | 11 | -5.30% | -5.80% | +7.80% |
| 1960-05 to 1961-02 | 10 | +16.70% | -5.50% | +10.30% |
| 1957-09 to 1958-04 | 8 | -3.90% | +4.50% | +32.60% |
| 1953-08 to 1954-05 | 10 | +17.90% | -6.20% | +29.90% |
| 1948-12 to 1949-10 | 11 | +8.70% | -11.60% | +21.80% |
| 1945-03 to 1945-10 | 8 | +16.40% | +11.50% | -10.90% |
| 1937-06 to 1938-06 | 13 | -28.90% | -5.90% | -6.10% |
| 1929-09 to 1933-03 | 43 | -81.60% | +23.90% | +81.50% |
Recession dates: NBER via FRED (USREC). "During" runs from the close of the month before the recession began to the close of its last month. Fed cuts with and without a recession
More questions
Do stocks always fall in a recession?
No. The S&P 500 rose in 7 of the 15 recessions in our data, often because the worst falls came before the recession began.
What happens to stocks after a recession ends?
In the 12 months after the end of a recession the S&P 500 averaged +17.60% and rose in 12 of 15 cases.
Who decides when a recession starts?
In the US, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. It announces the dates months after the turning points.
Where the data comes from
Daily closes from Yahoo Finance and FRED, computed by our code, as of October 16, 2026. More on S&P 500. How to read these numbers: guide. Not investment advice.
Questions, ideas or corrections?
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.