S&P 500 price outlook: what does history say?
We do not forecast prices. Here is what history says for the coming months. October has averaged +0.55% for S&P 500, higher in 59% of 98 years (no clear pattern); November has averaged +1.01% for S&P 500, higher in 62% of 98 years (no clear pattern); December has averaged +1.27% for S&P 500, higher in 72% of 98 years (strong).
S&P 500 is +11.89% this year and +5.34% against its 200-day average. History describes tendencies; it does not predict a given year.
This year against a typical year
The next three months in history
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Worst year | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | +0.55% | +1.03% | 59% | -21.76% | no clear pattern |
| November | +1.01% | +1.63% | 62% | -13.37% | no clear pattern |
| December | +1.27% | +1.48% | 72% | -14.53% | strong |
Seasonal windows open now or soon
What to watch
- Scheduled events on the calendar, such as central bank decisions and data releases.
- Whether S&P 500 keeps up with its usual seasonal path on the market page.
- The market outlook for the wider picture, updated every weekday.
More questions
Is S&P 500 expected to go up?
We do not make forecasts. In the past, October has averaged +0.55% for S&P 500, higher in 59% of 98 years.
What is the best month for S&P 500?
See the full ranking on our best-month page for S&P 500, with every month's average, median and share of up years.
Where do these numbers come from?
Daily closes from public price data, computed by our code and updated every weekday. History is not a forecast.
Where the data comes from
Daily closes from Yahoo Finance and FRED, computed by our code, as of October 16, 2026. More on S&P 500. How to read these numbers: guide. Not investment advice.
Questions, ideas or corrections?
Write to us. We read every email.
Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.