A hiking Fed meets a 29,000-job September, yields sit at 24-year highs and the Nasdaq keeps setting records
Rates dominate the week: the Fed restarted hikes on September 16, the September jobs report came in at 29,000 and the 10-year yield closed at 5.31%. Brent traded at $102.31 on Strait of Hormuz risk, Brazil rallied on a first-round election surprise, and October opens its usual seasonal windows in natural gas, European stocks, bitcoin and lean hogs.
Central banks and rates
A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking
The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.
The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikes
French fiscal worries hit the CAC 40 while the dollar rose with Treasury yields.
Big market moves
Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records
The 30-year yield closed at its highest in over 24 years on the same day the Nasdaq printed its 23rd record of 2026.
Gold holds its ground despite yields at multi-decade highs
Real yields would normally weigh on gold. Central-bank buying is one reason the pullback has stayed contained.
Political posts and headlines
Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to markets
A rally speech named South Korea, China, Japan and Canada. Past escalation headlines have hit Asian exporters and oil hardest within a week.
Brazil's first-round surprise sends the Ibovespa to a record
Flavio Bolsonaro edged Lula in the first round. The runoff is on October 25, and the Ibovespa closed at a record.
Supply shocks
Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak window
OPEC+ held output steady and the Brent-WTI spread widened above $11. Autumn refinery maintenance usually softens crude demand.
Seasonal windows
Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disrupted
October has been one of Henry Hub's strongest months in our data. Storage builds are running below average and Qatar extended force majeure into winter.
Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rain
Three soft commodities with very different October records and very different supply stories.
The midterm-year fourth quarter has been the strongest stretch of the four-year cycle
2026 is a US midterm year. Since 1928 the S&P 500 has risen in most midterm-year fourth quarters.
Crypto regulation and flows
Bitcoin's strongest seasonal month arrives late in the halving cycle
October has been bitcoin's best month in our data. The current cycle is past the window where previous cycles peaked.
Earnings and balance sheets
Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13
Bank results will be the first read on loan demand and trading under a hiking Fed. A $22.6bn deal shows how fast single-stock moves can be.
Markets in this brief
| Market | Last | Day | 1 month | Year to date | Oct average | Oct pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,818.93 | +0.58% | +1.30% | +14.22% | +0.55% | no clear pattern |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 4.84% | +1 bp | +47 bp | +137 bp | -5 bp | no clear pattern |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 5.31% | +3 bp | +53 bp | +113 bp | -1 bp | no clear pattern |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 101.83 | -0.33% | +2.69% | +3.61% | -0.01% | no clear pattern |
| Gold | 4,187.10 | +0.73% | -6.47% | -3.55% | +0.13% | no clear pattern |
| Bitcoin | 85,557.56 | -0.27% | +6.48% | -2.23% | +16.63% | strong |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,599.79 | +0.45% | +4.12% | +18.75% | +0.77% | no clear pattern |
| Nvidia | 239.24 | +0.14% | +3.97% | +28.58% | +5.54% | weak |
| KOSPI | 6,941.39 | -0.89% | +3.80% | +64.72% | -0.43% | no clear pattern |
| Nikkei 225 | 70,683.98 | +1.05% | +8.71% | +40.41% | +0.40% | no clear pattern |
| Hang Seng | 24,280.56 | +1.00% | -5.34% | -5.27% | +0.76% | moderate |
| Copper | 6.5945 | +0.14% | -0.04% | +17.13% | -0.21% | no clear pattern |
| USD/JPY | 157.96 | +0.15% | +1.48% | +0.99% | -0.19% | no clear pattern |
| Ibovespa | 205,835.00 | -0.52% | +11.17% | +27.75% | +1.31% | weak |
| USD/BRL | 4.9967 | -4.33% | -2.04% | -8.76% | -0.77% | no clear pattern |
| Brent crude oil | 100.58 | +0.26% | +4.47% | +65.29% | -1.01% | no clear pattern |
| WTI crude oil | 89.44 | +0.01% | -2.23% | +55.76% | -1.77% | no clear pattern |
| Heating oil (ULSD) | 4.5694 | +0.53% | +0.64% | +115.48% | -0.78% | no clear pattern |
| Exxon Mobil | 164.48 | +0.29% | +3.14% | +39.42% | +1.57% | weak |
| Shell | 3,651.00 | +0.54% | +6.23% | +33.28% | +1.60% | strong |
| Natural gas (Henry Hub) | 3.1140 | +1.57% | +4.67% | -15.52% | +7.37% | strong |
| European natural gas (TTF) | 17.93 | +18.80% | +2.82% | weak | ||
| Silver | 61.17 | +0.49% | -7.39% | -12.78% | +0.85% | weak |
| Ether | 2,697.52 | -0.50% | +7.28% | -9.08% | +6.73% | weak |
| JPMorgan Chase | 331.28 | +0.17% | -7.17% | +4.79% | +2.20% | weak |
| ASML | 1,636.40 | -1.20% | +11.52% | +78.45% | +7.52% | strong |
| EUR/USD | 1.1217 | -0.33% | -3.54% | -4.51% | -0.28% | no clear pattern |
| CAC 40 | 7,865.07 | +0.40% | -5.00% | -3.49% | +1.75% | strong |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,272.23 | +0.48% | -1.89% | +8.21% | +0.68% | weak |
| DAX | 25,449.19 | +0.77% | -2.29% | +3.91% | +1.99% | strong |
| GBP/USD | 1.3219 | -0.18% | -2.31% | -1.85% | -0.21% | no clear pattern |
| Sugar | 20.82 | +0.43% | +15.22% | +38.71% | +3.28% | moderate |
| Cocoa | 5,700.00 | -2.85% | -6.28% | -6.02% | -2.80% | moderate |
| Coffee (Arabica) | 304.45 | +4.07% | -6.11% | -12.70% | -1.10% | no clear pattern |
| Lean hogs | 77.93 | +0.10% | -5.32% | -8.43% | -5.56% | strong |
| Russell 2000 | 2,830.30 | -0.59% | -4.88% | +14.04% | -0.54% | no clear pattern |
Sources
- The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026, in a 12-0 vote. Federal Reserve Board, Sep 16
- The next FOMC meetings are scheduled for October 27-28 and December 8-9, 2026. Federal Reserve Board, Oct 6
- New York Fed President John Williams said on September 29 there is no need for urgency and that one more increase may be appropriate late this year. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Sep 29
- US nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September 2026 and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. July was revised to -10,000 and August to 133,000. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oct 2
- US consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year. The September CPI report is scheduled for October 14. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sep 11
- After the soft jobs data, market pricing put the odds of an October Fed hike at about 18%. Investing.com, Oct 5
- The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on October 5. The Motley Fool, Oct 5
- The US 30-year yield closed at 5.66%, the highest daily close in over 24 years. Saxo, Oct 6
- The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,477 on October 5, up 1.05%, its 23rd record close of 2026. The S&P 500 closed at 7,773.95. Saxo, Oct 5
- Nvidia closed at a record $238.90 on October 5. The Motley Fool, Oct 5
- The US dollar index rose 0.4% to about 102.5 on October 5 and EUR/USD fell to 1.1161, a 17-month low. Investing.com, Oct 5
- The ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on September 10, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50% from September 16. Staff project headline inflation of 3.0% for 2026. European Central Bank, Sep 10
- The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring 4.0%. UK CPI inflation was 3.1% in August. The next decision is on November 5. Bank of England, Sep 17
- The CAC 40 fell 0.80% on October 5 on French fiscal worries while the Stoxx 600 rose 0.36%. The Irish Times, Oct 5
- At a rally in Vandalia, Ohio on October 3, President Trump threatened tariffs of 150, 200, 250, 300 percent on foreign companies that do not build US plants within about 18 months, naming South Korea, China, Japan and Canada. The Korea Herald, Oct 3
- In Brazil's first round on October 4, Flavio Bolsonaro received 47.03% and Lula 45.16% with 99.99% of votes counted. The runoff is on October 25. The Rio Times, Oct 5
- Seven core OPEC+ members kept November output unchanged at their October 4 meeting. The next meeting is on November 1. UPI, Oct 4
- Brent traded at $102.31 in early Asian trading on October 5, with the Brent-WTI spread above $11, which traders attributed to Strait of Hormuz threats, high insurance costs and tanker freight rates. Gulf News, Oct 5
- US commercial crude inventories rose 0.9 million barrels to 427.3 million in the week ended September 25. Distillate stocks fell 2.3 million barrels and are 14% below the five-year average. Refinery utilization was 92.5%. Oil & Gas Journal, Oct 1
- US natural gas storage rose by 64 bcf in the week ended September 25, against a five-year average build of 80 bcf. LNG feedgas averaged 17.9 bcf/d in September. Trading Economics, Oct 6
- Qatar extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to November for Asia and to December for Europe. LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain 80% below February levels, according to Kpler. The EU ban on Russian LNG starts in January. The National, Oct 2
- Gold traded at $4,218 an ounce on October 2, down 2.68% from a month earlier. Fortune, Oct 2
- China's central bank bought 20.2 tonnes of gold in August, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and its 22nd straight month of buying. Kitco, Sep 8
- Bitcoin traded at $86,281.11 and Ether at $2,715.95 on the morning of October 6. Fortune, Oct 6
- US spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $89.8M on October 5, after net inflows of $241M in the week to October 2 and $2.39B in the week to September 25. The Crypto Times, Oct 6
- On October 1 the SEC proposed a 760-page crypto custody rule with a 60-day comment period. CoinDesk, Oct 1
- Third-quarter bank earnings start on October 13 with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on October 14 and TSMC on October 15. PepsiCo reports on October 8 and Delta on October 9. interactive investor, Oct 6
- JPMorganChase will release third-quarter results at about 7:00am ET on October 13 and host its call at 8:30am ET. JPMorganChase, Oct 6
- Schneider Electric agreed an all-cash deal for PTC valued at about $22.6bn. PTC shares rose 33.5% and Schneider fell 10%. The Irish Times, Oct 5
- ICE cocoa stocks of 3,481,504 bags on September 30 were the highest in 2.25 years, and Ivory Coast shipments were up 19.8% for the season. Trading Economics, Oct 6
- Raw sugar traded at 20.88 cents a pound on October 6, up 15.34% over the month. StoneX forecasts a 0.9 million tonne deficit in 2026/27. Trading Economics, Oct 6
- Arabica coffee rose 4.34% to 305.24 cents a pound on October 6, with Brazilian rain hurting bean quality and certified stocks near 27-year lows. Trading Economics, Oct 6
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