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Question

What is the best month for S&P 500?

Short answer

Since 1928, July has been the strongest month for S&P 500, averaging +1.67% and rising in 61% of 99 years. September has been the weakest, at -1.11%.

We rate the July pattern as strong and the September pattern as weak. April comes second at +1.36%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

S&P 500, 1928 to 2026

+1.7%+0.8%-0.8%-1.7%Jan: average +1.21%, up in 63% of 99 yearsJanFeb: average -0.11%, up in 52% of 99 yearsFebMar: average +0.42%, up in 61% of 99 yearsMarApr: average +1.36%, up in 66% of 99 yearsAprMay: average +0.13%, up in 61% of 99 yearsMayJun: average +0.79%, up in 57% of 99 yearsJunJul: average +1.67%, up in 61% of 99 yearsJulAug: average +0.70%, up in 59% of 99 yearsAugSep: average -1.11%, up in 44% of 99 yearsSepOct: average +0.55%, up in 59% of 98 yearsOctNov: average +1.01%, up in 62% of 98 yearsNovDec: average +1.27%, up in 72% of 98 yearsDec
S&P 500: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1July+1.67%+1.62%61%strong
2April+1.36%+0.94%66%strong
3December+1.27%+1.48%72%strong
4January+1.21%+1.55%63%strong
5November+1.01%+1.63%62%weak
6June+0.79%+0.30%57%weak
7August+0.70%+0.88%59%no clear pattern
8October+0.55%+1.03%59%no clear pattern
9March+0.42%+1.00%61%weak
10May+0.13%+1.07%61%no clear pattern
11February-0.11%+0.20%52%no clear pattern
12September-1.11%-0.45%44%weak

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 6 to Feb 16Opens in 122 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +0.70%Median +0.93%Worst year -4.81%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Mar 10 to May 4Opens in 154 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +3.40%Median +2.57%Worst year -7.81%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Jun 30 to Jul 20Opens in 266 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +1.25%Median +1.92%Worst year -14.35%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 60%, 2011 to 2025: 100%.

Sep 6 to Dec 5Open now, 59 days left
90%higher in 30 years
Average +3.85%Median +5.69%Worst year -31.96%

Likely range of the hit rate 74% to 97%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Why it might happen

  • Corporate earnings and forward guidance, reported in four seasons a year (January, April, July, October).
  • Federal Reserve policy and the level of real yields, which set the discount rate for equities.
  • Fund flows around year end, tax-loss selling, buybacks and the blackout windows before earnings.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: S&P 500. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.