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Question

What is the best month for Nasdaq Composite?

Short answer

Since 1972, January has been the strongest month for Nasdaq Composite, averaging +2.47% and rising in 67% of 55 years. September has been the weakest, at -0.72%.

We rate the January pattern as strong and the September pattern as no clear pattern. November comes second at +2.06%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Nasdaq Composite, 1971 to 2026

+2.5%+1.2%-1.2%-2.5%Jan: average +2.47%, up in 67% of 55 yearsJanFeb: average +0.40%, up in 51% of 55 yearsFebMar: average +0.56%, up in 63% of 56 yearsMarApr: average +1.58%, up in 66% of 56 yearsAprMay: average +1.38%, up in 63% of 56 yearsMayJun: average +1.02%, up in 57% of 56 yearsJunJul: average +0.85%, up in 57% of 56 yearsJulAug: average +0.40%, up in 57% of 56 yearsAugSep: average -0.72%, up in 54% of 56 yearsSepOct: average +0.77%, up in 55% of 55 yearsOctNov: average +2.06%, up in 71% of 55 yearsNovDec: average +1.49%, up in 60% of 55 yearsDec
Nasdaq Composite: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1January+2.47%+2.86%67%strong
2November+2.06%+2.35%71%strong
3April+1.58%+1.67%66%moderate
4December+1.49%+0.58%60%moderate
5May+1.38%+2.85%63%moderate
6June+1.02%+1.12%57%weak
7July+0.85%+1.12%57%no clear pattern
8October+0.77%+2.16%55%no clear pattern
9March+0.56%+1.34%63%weak
10February+0.40%+0.10%51%no clear pattern
11August+0.40%+1.56%57%no clear pattern
12September-0.72%+0.35%54%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Mar 16 to Jun 9Opens in 160 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +4.63%Median +3.81%Worst year -17.81%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Jun 16 to Jul 21Opens in 252 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +2.73%Median +3.43%Worst year -12.33%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 60%, 2011 to 2025: 100%.

Aug 13 to Sep 17Opens in 310 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +1.33%Median +1.89%Worst year -20.32%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Sep 30 to Dec 9Open now, 63 days left
83%higher in 30 years
Average +6.21%Median +7.10%Worst year -20.77%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 80%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Why it might happen

  • Mega-cap technology earnings, AI capital spending and semiconductor demand.
  • Long-duration growth stocks are more sensitive to changes in bond yields than the broad market.
  • Product cycles and developer conferences cluster in spring and early autumn.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Nasdaq Composite. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.