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Question

What is the best month for Euro Stoxx 50?

Short answer

Since 2007, April has been the strongest month for Euro Stoxx 50, averaging +1.92% and rising in 70% of 20 years. August has been the weakest, at -1.12%.

We rate the April pattern as strong and the August pattern as no clear pattern. July comes second at +1.69%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Euro Stoxx 50, 2007 to 2026

+1.9%+1.0%-1.0%-1.9%Jan: average +0.13%, up in 53% of 19 yearsJanFeb: average +0.13%, up in 58% of 19 yearsFebMar: average -0.09%, up in 53% of 19 yearsMarApr: average +1.92%, up in 70% of 20 yearsAprMay: average -0.69%, up in 50% of 20 yearsMayJun: average -0.91%, up in 35% of 20 yearsJunJul: average +1.69%, up in 70% of 20 yearsJulAug: average -1.12%, up in 45% of 20 yearsAugSep: average -0.25%, up in 55% of 20 yearsSepOct: average +0.68%, up in 63% of 19 yearsOctNov: average +1.31%, up in 53% of 19 yearsNovDec: average +0.90%, up in 68% of 19 yearsDec
Euro Stoxx 50: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1April+1.92%+1.55%70%strong
2July+1.69%+0.54%70%strong
3November+1.31%+0.11%53%no clear pattern
4December+0.90%+1.21%68%moderate
5October+0.68%+2.01%63%weak
6January+0.13%+2.62%53%no clear pattern
7February+0.13%+2.01%58%no clear pattern
8March-0.09%+0.39%53%no clear pattern
9September-0.25%+0.37%55%no clear pattern
10May-0.69%+0.51%50%no clear pattern
11June-0.91%-0.84%35%no clear pattern
12August-1.12%-0.28%45%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 10 to Feb 20Opens in 125 days
89%higher in 18 years
Average +1.05%Median +1.67%Worst year -11.31%

Likely range of the hit rate 67% to 97%. 2008 to 2016: 89%, 2017 to 2025: 89%.

Mar 14 to Apr 28Opens in 157 days
78%higher in 18 years
Average +2.86%Median +4.04%Worst year -8.32%

Likely range of the hit rate 55% to 91%. 2008 to 2016: 67%, 2017 to 2025: 89%.

Jun 12 to Jun 27Opens in 247 days
83%lower in 18 years
Average -0.96%Median -0.56%Worst year +3.39%

Likely range of the hit rate 60% to 94%. 2008 to 2016: 89%, 2017 to 2025: 78%. Weaker in recent years.

Oct 4 to Dec 18Open now, 71 days left
89%higher in 18 years
Average +2.80%Median +4.30%Worst year -21.50%

Likely range of the hit rate 67% to 97%. 2008 to 2016: 89%, 2017 to 2025: 89%.

Why it might happen

  • The 50 largest companies in the euro area, the benchmark for euro-area equity derivatives.
  • Driven by ECB policy, bank margins, energy costs and global trade.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Euro Stoxx 50. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.