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Question

What is the best month for DAX?

Short answer

Since 1988, April has been the strongest month for DAX, averaging +2.65% and rising in 72% of 39 years. September has been the weakest, at -2.08%.

We rate the April pattern as strong and the September pattern as moderate. November comes second at +2.61%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

DAX, 1988 to 2026

+2.6%+1.3%-1.3%-2.6%Jan: average +0.85%, up in 59% of 39 yearsJanFeb: average +1.06%, up in 56% of 39 yearsFebMar: average +0.40%, up in 51% of 39 yearsMarApr: average +2.65%, up in 72% of 39 yearsAprMay: average +1.03%, up in 64% of 39 yearsMayJun: average -0.04%, up in 49% of 39 yearsJunJul: average +1.60%, up in 67% of 39 yearsJulAug: average -1.84%, up in 49% of 39 yearsAugSep: average -2.08%, up in 38% of 39 yearsSepOct: average +1.99%, up in 68% of 38 yearsOctNov: average +2.61%, up in 66% of 38 yearsNovDec: average +2.21%, up in 74% of 38 yearsDec
DAX: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1April+2.65%+1.50%72%strong
2November+2.61%+2.87%66%strong
3December+2.21%+2.62%74%strong
4October+1.99%+2.41%68%strong
5July+1.60%+1.85%67%strong
6February+1.06%+2.15%56%no clear pattern
7May+1.03%+1.88%64%moderate
8January+0.85%+2.10%59%no clear pattern
9March+0.40%+0.09%51%no clear pattern
10June-0.04%-0.17%49%no clear pattern
11August-1.84%-0.09%49%weak
12September-2.08%-1.43%38%moderate

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 8 to Feb 18Opens in 124 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +1.06%Median +1.24%Worst year -9.47%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Mar 16 to Jun 4Opens in 160 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +5.97%Median +4.21%Worst year -15.31%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 80%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Oct 18 to Dec 7Opens in 11 days
93%higher in 30 years
Average +4.58%Median +3.62%Worst year -8.36%

Likely range of the hit rate 78% to 98%. 1996 to 2010: 93%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Dec 19 to Dec 29Opens in 73 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +1.38%Median +1.28%Worst year -4.10%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 80%, 2011 to 2025: 73%.

Why it might happen

  • Germany's 40 largest companies, heavy in autos, industrials, chemicals and software.
  • Export-driven: sensitive to China demand, energy prices and the euro exchange rate.
  • A total-return index, so dividends are reinvested, which flatters spring months when most German companies pay.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: DAX. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.