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Question

What is the best month for CAC 40?

Short answer

Since 1990, April has been the strongest month for CAC 40, averaging +2.13% and rising in 70% of 37 years. September has been the weakest, at -1.91%.

We rate the April pattern as strong and the September pattern as weak. October comes second at +1.75%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

CAC 40, 1990 to 2026

+2.1%+1.1%-1.1%-2.1%Jan: average +1.01%, up in 58% of 36 yearsJanFeb: average +1.25%, up in 58% of 36 yearsFebMar: average +0.49%, up in 64% of 36 yearsMarApr: average +2.13%, up in 70% of 37 yearsAprMay: average -0.51%, up in 54% of 37 yearsMayJun: average -1.08%, up in 43% of 37 yearsJunJul: average +0.88%, up in 59% of 37 yearsJulAug: average -1.27%, up in 35% of 37 yearsAugSep: average -1.91%, up in 51% of 37 yearsSepOct: average +1.75%, up in 72% of 36 yearsOctNov: average +1.54%, up in 61% of 36 yearsNovDec: average +1.35%, up in 69% of 35 yearsDec
CAC 40: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1April+2.13%+2.83%70%strong
2October+1.75%+1.99%72%strong
3November+1.54%+1.40%61%moderate
4December+1.35%+1.77%69%strong
5February+1.25%+2.17%58%no clear pattern
6January+1.01%+1.88%58%no clear pattern
7July+0.88%+1.26%59%no clear pattern
8March+0.49%+1.27%64%no clear pattern
9May-0.51%+0.10%54%no clear pattern
10June-1.08%-1.11%43%no clear pattern
11August-1.27%-1.18%35%moderate
12September-1.91%+0.05%51%weak

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 8 to Feb 18Opens in 123 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +1.08%Median +1.27%Worst year -7.96%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 67%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Feb 24 to Apr 30Opens in 139 days
87%higher in 30 years
Average +3.48%Median +3.94%Worst year -19.35%

Likely range of the hit rate 71% to 95%. 1996 to 2010: 93%, 2011 to 2025: 80%. Weaker in recent years.

Sep 14 to Dec 8Open now, 61 days left
83%higher in 30 years
Average +2.45%Median +3.36%Worst year -31.04%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Why it might happen

  • France's large caps, dominated by luxury, energy, aerospace and banks.
  • Luxury names make it unusually sensitive to Chinese and US consumer spending.
  • French fiscal and political headlines move bank stocks and the spread over German bonds.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: CAC 40. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.