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Question

What is the best month for Natural gas (Henry Hub)?

Short answer

Since 2000, September has been the strongest month for Natural gas (Henry Hub), averaging +8.58% and rising in 67% of 27 years. January has been the weakest, at -5.16%.

We rate the September pattern as strong and the January pattern as moderate. October comes second at +7.37%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Natural gas (Henry Hub), 2000 to 2026

+8.6%+4.3%-4.3%-8.6%Jan: average -5.16%, up in 38% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average -2.09%, up in 42% of 26 yearsFebMar: average +1.45%, up in 54% of 26 yearsMarApr: average +3.76%, up in 69% of 26 yearsAprMay: average +2.55%, up in 54% of 26 yearsMayJun: average +0.19%, up in 42% of 26 yearsJunJul: average -1.13%, up in 31% of 26 yearsJulAug: average +0.48%, up in 58% of 26 yearsAugSep: average +8.58%, up in 67% of 27 yearsSepOct: average +7.37%, up in 65% of 26 yearsOctNov: average +2.43%, up in 54% of 26 yearsNovDec: average -4.99%, up in 38% of 26 yearsDec
Natural gas (Henry Hub): average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1September+8.58%+2.09%67%strong
2October+7.37%+4.17%65%strong
3April+3.76%+5.31%69%strong
4May+2.55%+1.40%54%no clear pattern
5November+2.43%+0.86%54%no clear pattern
6March+1.45%+1.67%54%no clear pattern
7August+0.48%+1.36%58%no clear pattern
8June+0.19%-0.70%42%no clear pattern
9July-1.13%-4.42%31%moderate
10February-2.09%-4.87%42%no clear pattern
11December-4.99%-5.37%38%no clear pattern
12January-5.16%-5.57%38%moderate

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 13 to Feb 7Opens in 98 days
84%lower in 25 years
Average -8.04%Median -7.91%Worst year +16.79%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Mar 22 to Jun 15Opens in 166 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +12.08%Median +7.92%Worst year -23.70%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 77%.

Aug 27 to Oct 31Open now, 24 days left
84%higher in 25 years
Average +19.23%Median +19.32%Worst year -31.64%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 77%. Weaker in recent years.

Nov 27 to Dec 27Opens in 51 days
76%lower in 25 years
Average -5.99%Median -6.52%Worst year +29.52%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 77%.

Why it might happen

  • US heating demand in winter and power-burn demand in summer heat waves create a two-peak demand year.
  • Storage injections run from April to October; the market prices winter risk into autumn.
  • LNG export capacity links US prices to Europe and Asia.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Natural gas (Henry Hub). How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.