Natural gas (Henry Hub) vs Heating oil (ULSD): which is stronger each month?
Natural gas (Henry Hub) has been strongest in October (+4.24%) and weakest in December (-3.54%). Heating oil (ULSD) has been strongest in February (+4.41%) and weakest in November (-1.46%). Nat gas had the higher average in 6 of 12 months, and the two pointed the same way in 5 of 12.
Month by month
| Month | Nat gas average | Nat gas up years | Heating oil average | Heating oil up years | Stronger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.95% | 42% | +2.82% | 65% | Heating oil |
| February | -2.42% | 46% | +4.41% | 65% | Heating oil |
| March | +1.77% | 54% | +1.53% | 50% | Nat gas |
| April | +2.87% | 65% | +1.26% | 62% | Nat gas |
| May | +2.55% | 54% | +0.17% | 42% | Nat gas |
| June | -0.26% | 40% | +2.84% | 65% | Heating oil |
| July | -1.78% | 31% | +1.97% | 65% | Heating oil |
| August | -0.32% | 58% | +1.79% | 46% | Heating oil |
| September | +3.71% | 63% | +1.35% | 58% | Nat gas |
| October | +4.24% | 58% | -0.37% | 42% | Nat gas |
| November | +1.84% | 54% | -1.46% | 46% | Nat gas |
| December | -3.54% | 42% | -0.37% | 50% | Heating oil |
Natural gas (Henry Hub) since 2000, Heating oil (ULSD) since 2000, monthly close to close, as of October 16, 2026. The highlighted row is the current month. Monthly correlation over the last 16 years: 0.08.
More on each market
Questions
What is the best month for Natural gas (Henry Hub)?
Since 2000, October has averaged +4.24% for Natural gas (Henry Hub), higher in 58% of 26 years.
What is the best month for Heating oil (ULSD)?
Since 2001, February has averaged +4.41% for Heating oil (ULSD), higher in 65% of 26 years.
Do Natural gas (Henry Hub) and Heating oil (ULSD) move together?
Over the last 16 years their monthly moves had a correlation of 0.08, where 1 means they always move together and 0 means no link.
History describes the past. Not investment advice.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.