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Question

What is the best month for Bitcoin?

Short answer

Since 2014, October has been the strongest month for Bitcoin, averaging +16.63% and rising in 75% of 12 years. January has been the weakest, at -1.15%.

We rate the October pattern as strong and the January pattern as no clear pattern. February comes second at +10.19%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Bitcoin, 2014 to 2026

+16.6%+8.3%-8.3%-16.6%Jan: average -1.15%, up in 50% of 12 yearsJanFeb: average +10.19%, up in 75% of 12 yearsFebMar: average +0.48%, up in 50% of 12 yearsMarApr: average +10.16%, up in 67% of 12 yearsAprMay: average +8.08%, up in 50% of 12 yearsMayJun: average +0.05%, up in 50% of 12 yearsJunJul: average +8.88%, up in 75% of 12 yearsJulAug: average +1.95%, up in 33% of 12 yearsAugSep: average -1.14%, up in 50% of 12 yearsSepOct: average +16.63%, up in 75% of 12 yearsOctNov: average +7.51%, up in 58% of 12 yearsNovDec: average +7.14%, up in 42% of 12 yearsDec
Bitcoin: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1October+16.63%+12.94%75%strong
2February+10.19%+11.86%75%strong
3April+10.16%+9.70%67%moderate
4July+8.88%+8.13%75%strong
5May+8.08%+3.37%50%no clear pattern
6November+7.51%+7.58%58%no clear pattern
7December+7.14%-3.16%42%no clear pattern
8August+1.95%-7.19%33%no clear pattern
9March+0.48%-0.16%50%no clear pattern
10June+0.05%-0.51%50%no clear pattern
11September-1.14%-0.24%50%no clear pattern
12January-1.15%-3.46%50%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 23 to Feb 17Opens in 108 days
91%higher in 11 years
Average +13.54%Median +7.44%Worst year -7.87%

Likely range of the hit rate 62% to 98%. 2015 to 2019: 100%, 2020 to 2025: 83%. Weaker in recent years.

Jun 18 to Jul 28Opens in 254 days
91%higher in 11 years
Average +11.04%Median +11.76%Worst year -12.63%

Likely range of the hit rate 62% to 98%. 2015 to 2019: 80%, 2020 to 2025: 100%.

Sep 8 to Oct 28Open now, 21 days left
91%higher in 11 years
Average +17.59%Median +25.04%Worst year -11.35%

Likely range of the hit rate 62% to 98%. 2015 to 2019: 80%, 2020 to 2025: 100%.

Nov 25 to Dec 20Opens in 49 days
82%higher in 11 years
Average +14.58%Median +3.10%Worst year -18.15%

Likely range of the hit rate 52% to 95%. 2015 to 2019: 100%, 2020 to 2025: 67%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • Spot ETF flows, global liquidity and real yields have become key drivers since US spot ETFs launched.
  • The four-year halving cycle cuts new supply; past cycles peaked twelve to eighteen months after a halving.
  • Regulatory headlines and large holder or treasury-company buying and selling.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Bitcoin. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.