What moved markets this week, and what is still on the calendar?

The week began with a sharp slide in Asian chip stocks and a jump in oil. Midweek brings US inflation data, more earnings and a Fed that has just restarted hiking.

By Knowledge of Markets, the AI research desk of Market Seasonality. Statistics computed by code, facts checked against sources. October 14, 2026. Not investment advice.

Sources: Cointelegraph, Financial Times, MarketWatch, CoinDesk, Investing.com, Euronews, Al Jazeera, Federal Reserve Board, The National, interactive investor. Details

What has moved markets so far this week?

Chip stocks set the tone. The KOSPI extended its losses for the week to 7.4% and fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since late July. SK Hynix closed more than 10% lower. The index finished Tuesday down 5.4% after shedding 7.4% over two days, with semiconductors leading the losses on fears over AI spending and competition from China.

The Financial Times tied the move to a warning from the Broadcom boss about a casino mentality in AI investing. MarketWatch reported that chip stocks are heading toward their worst stretch in 16 months. By the October 13 close, the KOSPI stood -13.05% lower over one week and +43.22% higher for the year. The Nasdaq Composite was -1.43% over the week and sat -1.43% from its record. The S&P 500 was -0.17% over the same week, so the damage stayed concentrated in chips.

Oil was the second driver. Brent crude reached $107.25, its highest since Sept. 16, after Iran reported that a tanker had been hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil then fell early on Monday after an announced energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The International Energy Agency asked members to speed up strategic reserve releases and to prioritise diesel. Brent closed October 13 at 105.69, +5.08% on the week.

Crypto held up better than Asian tech. Bitcoin rebounded from a low near $81,000 toward $84,000, where resistance on exchange order books capped the move. Spot bitcoin ETFs lost $681 million in the prior week. Gold held a two-day slide as the Fed signaled one more hike, and it closed October 13 at 4,177.30.

Which events are still scheduled this week?

US CPI is due on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. Markets see CPI at 3.7% year-on-year after 3.4% in August. Both reports arrive ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 28. The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, and New York Fed President John Williams has reaffirmed that one more hike may be needed this year.

Earnings add a second layer. ASML reports its third-quarter results before the opening bell in Amsterdam on Wednesday, a direct read on chip equipment demand after the Asian rout. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report on October 14, and TSMC follows on October 15. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo opened bank earnings season on Tuesday.

Two smaller items round out the calendar. Thailand's new rules for crypto ETFs take effect on October 16. In energy, Qatar has extended force majeure on LNG deliveries, and Kpler data shows LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain 80% below February levels, which keeps gas markets sensitive to any shipping news.

How have markets reacted to Fed hikes before?

Across 52 past Fed hikes in our data, the S&P 500 moved +0.20% on average after one day, -0.18% after five days and -0.02% after twenty days. Only 52% of those cases were higher after twenty days. The Nasdaq Composite averaged +0.43% over twenty days, with 58% of cases higher.

The first hike of a cycle has a different record, though the sample is small. After 7 first hikes, the S&P 500 averaged +0.50% after five days and -1.20% after twenty days. September's move was the first of this cycle, so that history is the closest match. Seven cases cannot settle anything, and each one had its own backdrop.

Gold and bitcoin show mixed patterns. Gold averaged +0.97% twenty days after a hike across 38 cases. Bitcoin averaged -1.41% over twenty days across 21 cases, with 52% of them higher. The US 2-year yield averaged +9 bp after twenty days.

What does the season say for the weeks ahead?

October has a modest record for US stocks. The S&P 500 averaged +0.55% in October since 1928, with 59% of Octobers higher. November has been stronger: +1.01% on average and 62% of years higher. The Nasdaq Composite averaged +2.06% in November, which ranks 2 of 12 months.

The midterm calendar adds context. The current year is a Midterm year. Across 24 midterm-year fourth quarters, the S&P 500 averaged +5.55%, and 83% of them finished higher. The average for all fourth quarters is +2.89%.

Oil leans the other way. Brent has averaged -2.91% in November, which ranks 12 of 12 months, and 47% of Novembers were higher. Bitcoin's October record is the strongest of any month, at +16.63% on average across 12 years, though October so far shows -0.55%. Gold ranks 11 of 12 in October at +0.13%.

These are averages over many years. They describe tendencies, and any single week can look very different, especially when headlines on Iran and tariffs are driving prices.

What scenarios and signposts matter for the rest of the week?

Scenario one is a hot inflation print. If CPI comes in at or above the 3.7% that markets expect, bond yields and the dollar are the first places to look. The US 10-year yield stood at 5.24% on October 9, and the 30-year recently set a new 24-year high. Rising yields have coincided with pressure on long-duration assets before, so watch the Nasdaq and bitcoin for any reaction.

Scenario two is a cooler print. A softer reading would shift attention back to the Fed's October 28 meeting and to the comment from Williams that he sees no rate hikes in 2027. The signposts here are the 2-year yield, the dollar index at 102.18 and gold, which has been waiting on the data.

Scenario three is that chips and oil keep setting the agenda whatever CPI shows. ASML and TSMC results are the observable tests for the chip story. For oil, the signposts are Hormuz shipping reports, the Iran talks and the Trump statement that the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. Historically, after 5 oil supply cuts in our data, Brent averaged +6.49% after one day and +4.52% after twenty days.

What to watch

• Wednesday: US CPI against the 3.7% market expectation, and ASML results before the Amsterdam open.
• Thursday: US PPI, plus TSMC results on October 15.
• Friday October 16: Thailand's crypto ETF rules take effect.
• Hormuz shipping reports and Iran talks, which have moved Brent between daily swings in recent sessions.
• The KOSPI against its 200-day moving average after its first break since late July.

Questions