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Question

What is the best month for KOSPI?

Short answer

Since 1997, January has been the strongest month for KOSPI, averaging +3.28% and rising in 63% of 30 years. September has been the weakest, at -1.21%.

We rate the January pattern as moderate and the September pattern as no clear pattern. April comes second at +3.18%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

KOSPI, 1997 to 2026

+3.3%+1.6%-1.6%-3.3%Jan: average +3.28%, up in 63% of 30 yearsJanFeb: average +0.30%, up in 53% of 30 yearsFebMar: average +0.42%, up in 57% of 30 yearsMarApr: average +3.18%, up in 63% of 30 yearsAprMay: average +0.69%, up in 53% of 30 yearsMayJun: average +0.59%, up in 50% of 30 yearsJunJul: average +0.88%, up in 60% of 30 yearsJulAug: average -0.83%, up in 43% of 30 yearsAugSep: average -1.21%, up in 57% of 30 yearsSepOct: average -0.43%, up in 45% of 29 yearsOctNov: average +2.91%, up in 59% of 29 yearsNovDec: average +2.01%, up in 59% of 29 yearsDec
KOSPI: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1January+3.28%+1.89%63%moderate
2April+3.18%+2.86%63%moderate
3November+2.91%+0.83%59%weak
4December+2.01%+2.03%59%weak
5July+0.88%+1.53%60%no clear pattern
6May+0.69%+1.17%53%no clear pattern
7June+0.59%-0.06%50%no clear pattern
8March+0.42%+0.52%57%no clear pattern
9February+0.30%+0.43%53%no clear pattern
10October-0.43%-0.32%45%no clear pattern
11August-0.83%-0.65%43%no clear pattern
12September-1.21%+0.17%57%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 28 to Apr 14Opens in 143 days
79%higher in 29 years
Average +3.26%Median +2.51%Worst year -14.73%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 90%. 1997 to 2010: 79%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Sep 18 to Oct 3Opens in 345 days
76%lower in 29 years
Average -1.86%Median -1.08%Worst year +9.54%

Likely range of the hit rate 58% to 88%. 1997 to 2010: 71%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Oct 30 to Dec 9Opens in 22 days
76%higher in 29 years
Average +4.87%Median +3.03%Worst year -20.01%

Likely range of the hit rate 58% to 88%. 1997 to 2010: 86%, 2011 to 2025: 67%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • South Korea's benchmark, dominated by memory chips and autos, so it tracks the semiconductor cycle and US trade policy.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: KOSPI. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.