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Question

What is the best month for Gold?

Short answer

Since 2001, January has been the strongest month for Gold, averaging +2.95% and rising in 65% of 26 years. June has been the weakest, at -0.87%.

We rate the January pattern as strong and the June pattern as no clear pattern. August comes second at +2.50%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Gold, 2000 to 2026

+3.0%+1.5%-1.5%-3.0%Jan: average +2.95%, up in 65% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +1.23%, up in 58% of 26 yearsFebMar: average +0.21%, up in 46% of 26 yearsMarApr: average +1.28%, up in 62% of 26 yearsAprMay: average +0.27%, up in 50% of 26 yearsMayJun: average -0.87%, up in 42% of 26 yearsJunJul: average +0.93%, up in 58% of 26 yearsJulAug: average +2.50%, up in 73% of 26 yearsAugSep: average +0.43%, up in 48% of 27 yearsSepOct: average +0.13%, up in 50% of 26 yearsOctNov: average +1.33%, up in 58% of 26 yearsNovDec: average +1.45%, up in 65% of 26 yearsDec
Gold: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1January+2.95%+3.21%65%strong
2August+2.50%+3.06%73%strong
3December+1.45%+1.89%65%moderate
4November+1.33%+0.57%58%no clear pattern
5April+1.28%+1.49%62%weak
6February+1.23%+0.87%58%no clear pattern
7July+0.93%+1.43%58%no clear pattern
8September+0.43%-0.73%48%no clear pattern
9May+0.27%-0.16%50%no clear pattern
10March+0.21%-0.44%46%no clear pattern
11October+0.13%+0.35%50%no clear pattern
12June-0.87%-1.63%42%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 7 to Feb 1Opens in 92 days
84%higher in 25 years
Average +2.56%Median +1.82%Worst year -4.67%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 92%.

Apr 3 to Apr 13Opens in 178 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +1.69%Median +1.29%Worst year -3.34%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Jul 26 to Sep 4Opens in 292 days
84%higher in 25 years
Average +2.99%Median +3.02%Worst year -13.37%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 77%. Weaker in recent years.

Nov 19 to Dec 4Opens in 43 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +1.37%Median +1.47%Worst year -3.66%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 100%, 2013 to 2025: 62%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • Real interest rates and the US dollar, plus central-bank buying, which has become a structural source of demand.
  • Indian wedding and festival season and Chinese New Year buying are the traditional seasonal demand peaks.
  • Safe-haven demand during geopolitical and financial stress; mine supply grows only slowly.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Gold. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.