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Question

What is the best month for Brent crude oil?

Short answer

Since 2008, February has been the strongest month for Brent crude oil, averaging +4.15% and rising in 68% of 19 years. November has been the weakest, at -2.91%.

We rate the February pattern as strong and the November pattern as no clear pattern. April comes second at +3.86%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Brent crude oil, 2007 to 2026

+4.2%+2.1%-2.1%-4.2%Jan: average +2.15%, up in 58% of 19 yearsJanFeb: average +4.15%, up in 68% of 19 yearsFebMar: average +1.60%, up in 63% of 19 yearsMarApr: average +3.86%, up in 68% of 19 yearsAprMay: average +0.80%, up in 47% of 19 yearsMayJun: average +1.21%, up in 63% of 19 yearsJunJul: average +0.90%, up in 58% of 19 yearsJulAug: average -0.90%, up in 40% of 20 yearsAugSep: average -0.38%, up in 45% of 20 yearsSepOct: average -1.01%, up in 53% of 19 yearsOctNov: average -2.91%, up in 47% of 19 yearsNovDec: average -0.59%, up in 53% of 19 yearsDec
Brent crude oil: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1February+4.15%+2.88%68%strong
2April+3.86%+5.55%68%strong
3January+2.15%+2.84%58%no clear pattern
4March+1.60%+2.13%63%weak
5June+1.21%+2.38%63%weak
6July+0.90%+3.46%58%no clear pattern
7May+0.80%-1.83%47%no clear pattern
8September-0.38%-1.22%45%no clear pattern
9December-0.59%+0.56%53%no clear pattern
10August-0.90%-2.00%40%no clear pattern
11October-1.01%+0.43%53%no clear pattern
12November-2.91%-0.30%47%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 19 to Apr 14Opens in 104 days
83%higher in 18 years
Average +9.03%Median +11.28%Worst year -51.06%

Likely range of the hit rate 60% to 94%. 2008 to 2016: 89%, 2017 to 2025: 78%. Weaker in recent years.

May 19 to Jun 18Opens in 224 days
78%higher in 18 years
Average +2.85%Median +1.49%Worst year -13.95%

Likely range of the hit rate 55% to 91%. 2008 to 2016: 89%, 2017 to 2025: 67%. Weaker in recent years.

Aug 15 to Aug 30Opens in 312 days
94%higher in 18 years
Average +2.43%Median +2.03%Worst year -1.31%

Likely range of the hit rate 74% to 99%. 2008 to 2016: 89%, 2017 to 2025: 100%.

Why it might happen

  • The global seaborne benchmark; reacts to OPEC+ policy, Middle East shipping risk and China imports.
  • Seasonal demand peaks in the northern summer and again in winter heating demand for distillates.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Brent crude oil. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.