Seasonal windows
Seasonal windows that open this month and how consistent they have been.
Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak window
OPEC+ held output steady and the Brent-WTI spread widened above $11. Autumn refinery maintenance usually softens crude demand.
Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disrupted
October has been one of Henry Hub's strongest months in our data. Storage builds are running below average and Qatar extended force majeure into winter.
Bitcoin's strongest seasonal month arrives late in the halving cycle
October has been bitcoin's best month in our data. The current cycle is past the window where previous cycles peaked.
Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rain
Three soft commodities with very different October records and very different supply stories.
The midterm-year fourth quarter has been the strongest stretch of the four-year cycle
2026 is a US midterm year. Since 1928 the S&P 500 has risen in most midterm-year fourth quarters.
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