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Question

What is the best month for Sugar?

Short answer

Since 2000, June has been the strongest month for Sugar, averaging +4.21% and rising in 67% of 27 years. March has been the weakest, at -6.19%.

We rate the June pattern as strong and the March pattern as strong. October comes second at +3.28%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Sugar, 2000 to 2026

+6.2%+3.1%-3.1%-6.2%Jan: average +2.36%, up in 65% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +0.01%, up in 50% of 26 yearsFebMar: average -6.19%, up in 31% of 26 yearsMarApr: average -1.31%, up in 30% of 27 yearsAprMay: average +0.44%, up in 44% of 27 yearsMayJun: average +4.21%, up in 67% of 27 yearsJunJul: average +3.03%, up in 63% of 27 yearsJulAug: average -0.27%, up in 52% of 27 yearsAugSep: average +2.53%, up in 48% of 27 yearsSepOct: average +3.28%, up in 65% of 26 yearsOctNov: average +0.38%, up in 46% of 26 yearsNovDec: average +0.82%, up in 54% of 26 yearsDec
Sugar: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1June+4.21%+2.13%67%strong
2October+3.28%+2.23%65%moderate
3July+3.03%+3.81%63%weak
4September+2.53%-0.05%48%no clear pattern
5January+2.36%+2.09%65%weak
6December+0.82%+0.70%54%no clear pattern
7May+0.44%-0.86%44%no clear pattern
8November+0.38%-0.68%46%no clear pattern
9February+0.01%+0.11%50%no clear pattern
10August-0.27%+0.12%52%no clear pattern
11April-1.31%-4.30%30%weak
12March-6.19%-3.81%31%strong

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 24 to Mar 26Opens in 140 days
88%lower in 25 years
Average -6.19%Median -5.83%Worst year +14.93%

Likely range of the hit rate 70% to 96%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Apr 19 to Apr 29Opens in 194 days
76%lower in 25 years
Average -1.98%Median -1.98%Worst year +10.75%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 77%.

Jun 28 to Jul 8Opens in 264 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +3.52%Median +3.87%Worst year -7.51%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Sep 20 to Oct 15Open now, 8 days left
92%higher in 25 years
Average +7.01%Median +3.67%Worst year -10.62%

Likely range of the hit rate 75% to 98%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 100%.

Why it might happen

  • Brazil's centre-south crush from April to November and how mills split cane between sugar and ethanol.
  • Monsoon rains in India and Thai output.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Sugar. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.