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Question

What is the best month for Copper?

Short answer

Since 2001, February has been the strongest month for Copper, averaging +2.93% and rising in 65% of 26 years. August has been the weakest, at -0.98%.

We rate the February pattern as strong and the August pattern as no clear pattern. April comes second at +2.10%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Copper, 2000 to 2026

+2.9%+1.5%-1.5%-2.9%Jan: average +1.90%, up in 65% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +2.93%, up in 65% of 26 yearsFebMar: average +1.41%, up in 54% of 26 yearsMarApr: average +2.10%, up in 54% of 26 yearsAprMay: average -0.10%, up in 58% of 26 yearsMayJun: average -0.57%, up in 54% of 26 yearsJunJul: average +1.57%, up in 62% of 26 yearsJulAug: average -0.98%, up in 42% of 26 yearsAugSep: average +0.24%, up in 56% of 27 yearsSepOct: average -0.21%, up in 46% of 26 yearsOctNov: average +1.60%, up in 54% of 26 yearsNovDec: average +1.02%, up in 62% of 26 yearsDec
Copper: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1February+2.93%+2.01%65%strong
2April+2.10%+0.65%54%no clear pattern
3January+1.90%+1.98%65%weak
4November+1.60%+1.36%54%no clear pattern
5July+1.57%+3.08%62%no clear pattern
6March+1.41%+0.23%54%no clear pattern
7December+1.02%+1.69%62%no clear pattern
8September+0.24%+0.32%56%no clear pattern
9May-0.10%+0.33%58%no clear pattern
10October-0.21%-0.43%46%no clear pattern
11June-0.57%+1.22%54%no clear pattern
12August-0.98%-1.54%42%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 5 to Mar 6Opens in 90 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +6.47%Median +4.92%Worst year -7.72%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 100%, 2013 to 2025: 62%. Weaker in recent years.

Apr 7 to Apr 17Opens in 182 days
76%higher in 25 years
Average +1.79%Median +0.99%Worst year -4.55%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 67%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Aug 17 to Aug 27Opens in 314 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +1.49%Median +2.04%Worst year -5.12%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 69%. Weaker in recent years.

Nov 17 to Dec 2Opens in 41 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +2.60%Median +3.42%Worst year -5.76%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 69%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • China's construction and grid spending, global factory activity and electrification.
  • Mine disruptions in Chile, Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo and smelter treatment charges.
  • US tariff decisions have created gaps between New York and London prices.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Copper. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.