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Question

What is the best month for Lean hogs?

Short answer

Since 2001, April has been the strongest month for Lean hogs, averaging +8.68% and rising in 81% of 26 years. August has been the weakest, at -13.86%.

We rate the April pattern as strong and the August pattern as strong. February comes second at +6.24%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Lean hogs, 2001 to 2026

+13.9%+6.9%-6.9%-13.9%Jan: average -0.20%, up in 62% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +6.24%, up in 76% of 25 yearsFebMar: average -0.87%, up in 32% of 25 yearsMarApr: average +8.68%, up in 81% of 26 yearsAprMay: average +3.61%, up in 73% of 26 yearsMayJun: average +0.68%, up in 54% of 26 yearsJunJul: average -0.17%, up in 54% of 26 yearsJulAug: average -13.86%, up in 8% of 26 yearsAugSep: average +3.90%, up in 69% of 26 yearsSepOct: average -5.56%, up in 28% of 25 yearsOctNov: average +1.52%, up in 48% of 25 yearsNovDec: average +5.10%, up in 72% of 25 yearsDec
Lean hogs: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1April+8.68%+8.97%81%strong
2February+6.24%+6.34%76%strong
3December+5.10%+4.44%72%strong
4September+3.90%+3.32%69%strong
5May+3.61%+3.00%73%strong
6November+1.52%-0.83%48%no clear pattern
7June+0.68%+1.94%54%no clear pattern
8July-0.17%+2.71%54%no clear pattern
9January-0.20%+1.70%62%no clear pattern
10March-0.87%-2.85%32%weak
11October-5.56%-6.30%28%strong
12August-13.86%-14.06%8%strong

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Apr 7 to Jul 6Opens in 181 days
96%higher in 25 years
Average +17.32%Median +14.24%Worst year -8.73%

Likely range of the hit rate 80% to 99%. 2001 to 2012: 100%, 2013 to 2025: 92%.

Jul 26 to Aug 30Opens in 291 days
100%lower in 25 years
Average -14.94%Median -14.71%Worst year -0.32%

Likely range of the hit rate 87% to 100%. 2001 to 2012: 100%, 2013 to 2025: 100%.

Oct 12 to Nov 21Opens in 4 days
92%lower in 25 years
Average -7.90%Median -7.09%Worst year +14.91%

Likely range of the hit rate 75% to 98%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 92%.

Dec 13 to Dec 23Opens in 66 days
92%higher in 25 years
Average +6.36%Median +5.88%Worst year -6.71%

Likely range of the hit rate 75% to 98%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 92%.

Why it might happen

  • Strong seasonal pattern: prices usually peak in early summer and fall into the autumn slaughter peak.
  • Export demand from Mexico and Asia and disease outbreaks.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Lean hogs. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.