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Question

What is the best month for USD/TRY?

Short answer

Since 2005, August has been the strongest month for USD/TRY, averaging +3.30% and rising in 77% of 22 years. April has been the weakest, at -0.05%.

We rate the August pattern as strong and the April pattern as no clear pattern. November comes second at +2.85%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

USD/TRY, 2005 to 2026

+3.3%+1.6%-1.6%-3.3%Jan: average +1.40%, up in 62% of 21 yearsJanFeb: average +0.88%, up in 68% of 22 yearsFebMar: average +2.40%, up in 73% of 22 yearsMarApr: average -0.05%, up in 41% of 22 yearsAprMay: average +2.79%, up in 55% of 22 yearsMayJun: average +1.74%, up in 73% of 22 yearsJunJul: average +0.17%, up in 59% of 22 yearsJulAug: average +3.30%, up in 77% of 22 yearsAugSep: average +1.08%, up in 73% of 22 yearsSepOct: average +0.88%, up in 62% of 21 yearsOctNov: average +2.85%, up in 76% of 21 yearsNovDec: average +0.73%, up in 62% of 21 yearsDec
USD/TRY: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1August+3.30%+1.50%77%strong
2November+2.85%+1.01%76%strong
3May+2.79%+1.72%55%moderate
4March+2.40%+1.85%73%strong
5June+1.74%+1.10%73%moderate
6January+1.40%+0.56%62%moderate
7September+1.08%+1.36%73%moderate
8February+0.88%+1.10%68%strong
9October+0.88%+0.41%62%weak
10December+0.73%+1.10%62%weak
11July+0.17%+0.31%59%no clear pattern
12April-0.05%-0.80%41%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 18 to Mar 10Opens in 133 days
95%higher in 20 years
Average +2.65%Median +1.61%Worst year -1.46%

Likely range of the hit rate 76% to 99%. 2006 to 2015: 100%, 2016 to 2025: 90%.

Apr 3 to Jun 22Opens in 177 days
85%higher in 20 years
Average +5.84%Median +3.23%Worst year -4.94%

Likely range of the hit rate 64% to 95%. 2006 to 2015: 80%, 2016 to 2025: 90%.

Aug 9 to Oct 23Open now, 15 days left
90%higher in 20 years
Average +5.06%Median +3.53%Worst year -5.71%

Likely range of the hit rate 70% to 97%. 2006 to 2015: 80%, 2016 to 2025: 100%.

Nov 7 to Dec 17Opens in 30 days
85%higher in 20 years
Average +4.96%Median +1.61%Worst year -7.01%

Likely range of the hit rate 64% to 95%. 2006 to 2015: 80%, 2016 to 2025: 90%.

Why it might happen

  • Turkish inflation, the central bank's policy rate and reserve position.
  • A managed depreciation path means the trend dominates seasonality.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: USD/TRY. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.