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Question

What is the best month for USD/JPY?

Short answer

Since 1996, November has been the strongest month for USD/JPY, averaging +0.78% and rising in 57% of 30 years. August has been the weakest, at -1.00%.

We rate the November pattern as no clear pattern and the August pattern as strong. March comes second at +0.76%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

USD/JPY, 1996 to 2026

+1.0%+0.5%-0.5%-1.0%Jan: average 0.00%, up in 47% of 30 yearsJanFeb: average +0.62%, up in 53% of 30 yearsFebMar: average +0.76%, up in 53% of 30 yearsMarApr: average +0.34%, up in 50% of 30 yearsAprMay: average -0.04%, up in 47% of 30 yearsMayJun: average +0.21%, up in 53% of 30 yearsJunJul: average -0.25%, up in 53% of 30 yearsJulAug: average -1.00%, up in 37% of 30 yearsAugSep: average +0.17%, up in 57% of 30 yearsSepOct: average -0.19%, up in 55% of 29 yearsOctNov: average +0.78%, up in 57% of 30 yearsNovDec: average +0.17%, up in 50% of 30 yearsDec
USD/JPY: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+0.78%+0.24%57%no clear pattern
2March+0.76%+0.53%53%no clear pattern
3February+0.62%+0.44%53%no clear pattern
4April+0.34%+0.01%50%no clear pattern
5June+0.21%+0.36%53%no clear pattern
6September+0.17%+0.32%57%no clear pattern
7December+0.17%-0.01%50%no clear pattern
8January0.00%-0.70%47%no clear pattern
9May-0.04%-0.35%47%no clear pattern
10October-0.19%+0.47%55%no clear pattern
11July-0.25%+0.12%53%no clear pattern
12August-1.00%-1.46%37%strong

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 6 to Feb 21Opens in 121 days
79%higher in 29 years
Average +1.10%Median +0.87%Worst year -3.09%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 90%. 1997 to 2010: 79%, 2011 to 2025: 73%.

Jul 18 to Sep 16Opens in 283 days
76%lower in 29 years
Average -1.28%Median -0.99%Worst year +6.31%

Likely range of the hit rate 58% to 88%. 1997 to 2010: 71%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Why it might happen

  • The gap between US and Japanese yields; Bank of Japan policy shifts and intervention risk.
  • Japanese fiscal year end in March brings repatriation flows.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: USD/JPY. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.