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Question

What is the best month for Heating oil (ULSD)?

Short answer

Since 2001, February has been the strongest month for Heating oil (ULSD), averaging +3.26% and rising in 58% of 26 years. November has been the weakest, at -2.12%.

We rate the February pattern as no clear pattern and the November pattern as no clear pattern. June comes second at +3.14%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Heating oil (ULSD), 2000 to 2026

+3.3%+1.6%-1.6%-3.3%Jan: average +2.49%, up in 62% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +3.26%, up in 58% of 26 yearsFebMar: average +1.22%, up in 46% of 26 yearsMarApr: average +1.65%, up in 62% of 26 yearsAprMay: average -0.26%, up in 38% of 26 yearsMayJun: average +3.14%, up in 69% of 26 yearsJunJul: average +1.97%, up in 65% of 26 yearsJulAug: average +2.50%, up in 50% of 26 yearsAugSep: average +0.52%, up in 54% of 26 yearsSepOct: average -0.78%, up in 42% of 26 yearsOctNov: average -2.12%, up in 46% of 26 yearsNovDec: average -0.41%, up in 58% of 26 yearsDec
Heating oil (ULSD): average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1February+3.26%+2.57%58%no clear pattern
2June+3.14%+3.06%69%strong
3August+2.50%+0.96%50%weak
4January+2.49%+3.49%62%weak
5July+1.97%+1.95%65%weak
6April+1.65%+2.18%62%weak
7March+1.22%-1.18%46%no clear pattern
8September+0.52%+0.82%54%no clear pattern
9May-0.26%-1.34%38%weak
10December-0.41%+2.21%58%no clear pattern
11October-0.78%-0.97%42%no clear pattern
12November-2.12%-0.79%46%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Mar 30 to Apr 14Opens in 173 days
76%higher in 25 years
Average +1.41%Median +2.98%Worst year -10.21%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 77%.

May 5 to Jul 4Opens in 209 days
76%higher in 25 years
Average +6.92%Median +3.03%Worst year -12.31%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 77%.

Aug 15 to Aug 30Opens in 311 days
84%higher in 25 years
Average +2.18%Median +1.87%Worst year -5.67%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Oct 12 to Nov 1Opens in 4 days
76%lower in 25 years
Average -2.50%Median -2.74%Worst year +11.84%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 67%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Why it might happen

  • Diesel and heating oil demand rises into the northern winter; refinery outages tighten supply.
  • Freight and agricultural activity add demand in harvest season.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Heating oil (ULSD). How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.