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Question

What is the best month for Amazon?

Short answer

Since 1998, April has been the strongest month for Amazon, averaging +7.93% and rising in 69% of 29 years. February has been the weakest, at -2.71%.

We rate the April pattern as strong and the February pattern as no clear pattern. November comes second at +6.72%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Amazon, 1997 to 2026

+7.9%+4.0%-4.0%-7.9%Jan: average +3.84%, up in 55% of 29 yearsJanFeb: average -2.71%, up in 45% of 29 yearsFebMar: average +4.61%, up in 72% of 29 yearsMarApr: average +7.93%, up in 69% of 29 yearsAprMay: average +1.72%, up in 62% of 29 yearsMayJun: average +4.42%, up in 63% of 30 yearsJunJul: average +4.57%, up in 67% of 30 yearsJulAug: average +1.52%, up in 50% of 30 yearsAugSep: average +5.31%, up in 53% of 30 yearsSepOct: average +2.85%, up in 55% of 29 yearsOctNov: average +6.72%, up in 72% of 29 yearsNovDec: average +0.50%, up in 41% of 29 yearsDec
Amazon: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1April+7.93%+8.19%69%strong
2November+6.72%+6.16%72%strong
3September+5.31%+1.45%53%no clear pattern
4March+4.61%+2.05%72%strong
5July+4.57%+4.34%67%moderate
6June+4.42%+3.53%63%weak
7January+3.84%+3.67%55%weak
8October+2.85%+2.35%55%no clear pattern
9May+1.72%+2.11%62%weak
10August+1.52%+0.32%50%no clear pattern
11December+0.50%-0.62%41%no clear pattern
12February-2.71%-0.63%45%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Mar 20 to Apr 9Opens in 163 days
79%higher in 28 years
Average +4.97%Median +4.62%Worst year -11.37%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 90%. 1998 to 2011: 86%, 2012 to 2025: 71%. Weaker in recent years.

Apr 15 to Jul 9Opens in 189 days
82%higher in 28 years
Average +15.24%Median +9.48%Worst year -24.96%

Likely range of the hit rate 64% to 92%. 1998 to 2011: 71%, 2012 to 2025: 93%.

Sep 28 to Oct 23Open now, 15 days left
79%higher in 28 years
Average +3.89%Median +1.62%Worst year -29.29%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 90%. 1998 to 2011: 79%, 2012 to 2025: 79%.

Nov 3 to Nov 28Opens in 26 days
82%higher in 28 years
Average +9.05%Median +5.65%Worst year -29.56%

Likely range of the hit rate 64% to 92%. 1998 to 2011: 71%, 2012 to 2025: 93%.

Why it might happen

  • AWS cloud growth and margins, plus the holiday shopping season and Prime Day.
  • Consumer spending data and tariffs on imported goods affect the retail side.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Amazon. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.