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Question

What is the best month for Wheat?

Short answer

Since 2001, July has been the strongest month for Wheat, averaging +3.99% and rising in 62% of 26 years. June has been the weakest, at -1.78%.

We rate the July pattern as weak and the June pattern as weak. December comes second at +2.84%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Wheat, 2000 to 2026

+4.0%+2.0%-2.0%-4.0%Jan: average -1.05%, up in 50% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +0.60%, up in 42% of 26 yearsFebMar: average -0.13%, up in 46% of 26 yearsMarApr: average -0.46%, up in 46% of 26 yearsAprMay: average +2.75%, up in 54% of 26 yearsMayJun: average -1.78%, up in 38% of 26 yearsJunJul: average +3.99%, up in 62% of 26 yearsJulAug: average -0.29%, up in 44% of 27 yearsAugSep: average +2.64%, up in 63% of 27 yearsSepOct: average +0.48%, up in 62% of 26 yearsOctNov: average -1.20%, up in 38% of 26 yearsNovDec: average +2.84%, up in 65% of 26 yearsDec
Wheat: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1July+3.99%+3.98%62%weak
2December+2.84%+2.42%65%moderate
3May+2.75%+1.92%54%weak
4September+2.64%+3.30%63%weak
5February+0.60%-1.66%42%no clear pattern
6October+0.48%+2.59%62%no clear pattern
7March-0.13%-0.26%46%no clear pattern
8August-0.29%-0.57%44%no clear pattern
9April-0.46%-1.01%46%no clear pattern
10January-1.05%-0.22%50%no clear pattern
11November-1.20%-2.04%38%weak
12June-1.78%-5.17%38%weak

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jul 20 to Jul 30Opens in 286 days
80%lower in 25 years
Average -1.38%Median -1.65%Worst year +14.64%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Sep 4 to Oct 29Open now, 22 days left
88%higher in 25 years
Average +4.42%Median +4.63%Worst year -31.67%

Likely range of the hit rate 70% to 96%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 100%.

Nov 5 to Nov 15Opens in 29 days
84%lower in 25 years
Average -1.21%Median -2.06%Worst year +7.80%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Dec 9 to Dec 19Opens in 63 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +3.32%Median +2.52%Worst year -4.94%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 77%.

Why it might happen

  • Northern hemisphere harvest pressure in summer; weather in the US Plains, the Black Sea, the EU and Australia.
  • Export policy in Russia and Ukraine and Black Sea shipping risk.
  • USDA WASDE reports each month reset supply and demand estimates.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Wheat. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.