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Question

What is the best month for Soybeans?

Short answer

Since 2001, February has been the strongest month for Soybeans, averaging +3.43% and rising in 65% of 26 years. July has been the weakest, at -3.30%.

We rate the February pattern as strong and the July pattern as moderate. June comes second at +2.67%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Soybeans, 2000 to 2026

+3.4%+1.7%-1.7%-3.4%Jan: average +0.42%, up in 65% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +3.43%, up in 65% of 26 yearsFebMar: average +0.15%, up in 54% of 26 yearsMarApr: average +2.23%, up in 58% of 26 yearsAprMay: average +0.08%, up in 50% of 26 yearsMayJun: average +2.67%, up in 62% of 26 yearsJunJul: average -3.30%, up in 38% of 26 yearsJulAug: average -1.85%, up in 35% of 26 yearsAugSep: average -2.79%, up in 38% of 26 yearsSepOct: average +2.04%, up in 62% of 26 yearsOctNov: average +1.82%, up in 65% of 26 yearsNovDec: average +2.08%, up in 50% of 26 yearsDec
Soybeans: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1February+3.43%+2.44%65%strong
2June+2.67%+2.75%62%moderate
3April+2.23%+1.46%58%weak
4December+2.08%+0.01%50%weak
5October+2.04%+1.06%62%weak
6November+1.82%+1.68%65%moderate
7January+0.42%+1.31%65%no clear pattern
8March+0.15%+0.30%54%no clear pattern
9May+0.08%-0.48%50%no clear pattern
10August-1.85%-4.31%35%weak
11September-2.79%-2.34%38%weak
12July-3.30%-2.50%38%moderate

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Mar 14 to Jun 7Opens in 158 days
76%higher in 25 years
Average +4.79%Median +3.87%Worst year -12.11%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 62%. Weaker in recent years.

Jun 24 to Jul 4Opens in 260 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +2.79%Median +3.62%Worst year -9.54%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 77%.

Jul 10 to Aug 4Opens in 276 days
88%lower in 25 years
Average -5.69%Median -4.24%Worst year +3.99%

Likely range of the hit rate 70% to 96%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 92%.

Oct 26 to Dec 20Opens in 19 days
84%higher in 25 years
Average +2.84%Median +2.58%Worst year -8.12%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Why it might happen

  • US summer growing weather, then the shift to the South American crop from January.
  • Chinese import demand and trade policy are the largest swing factors.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Soybeans. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.