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Question

What is the best month for SAP?

Short answer

Since 1999, April has been the strongest month for SAP, averaging +3.37% and rising in 57% of 28 years. September has been the weakest, at -2.63%.

We rate the April pattern as weak and the September pattern as no clear pattern. July comes second at +2.78%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

SAP, 1998 to 2026

+3.4%+1.7%-1.7%-3.4%Jan: average +1.66%, up in 46% of 28 yearsJanFeb: average +0.12%, up in 44% of 27 yearsFebMar: average -0.62%, up in 57% of 28 yearsMarApr: average +3.37%, up in 57% of 28 yearsAprMay: average +1.25%, up in 59% of 29 yearsMayJun: average +1.17%, up in 59% of 29 yearsJunJul: average +2.78%, up in 62% of 29 yearsJulAug: average -0.21%, up in 59% of 29 yearsAugSep: average -2.63%, up in 45% of 29 yearsSepOct: average +2.73%, up in 54% of 28 yearsOctNov: average +1.65%, up in 64% of 28 yearsNovDec: average +1.40%, up in 50% of 28 yearsDec
SAP: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1April+3.37%+0.64%57%weak
2July+2.78%+2.53%62%moderate
3October+2.73%+1.05%54%no clear pattern
4January+1.66%-0.41%46%no clear pattern
5November+1.65%+2.81%64%weak
6December+1.40%+0.49%50%no clear pattern
7May+1.25%+1.14%59%no clear pattern
8June+1.17%+0.69%59%no clear pattern
9February+0.12%-0.83%44%no clear pattern
10August-0.21%+1.06%59%no clear pattern
11March-0.62%+1.31%57%no clear pattern
12September-2.63%-0.97%45%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Mar 18 to May 27Opens in 161 days
81%higher in 27 years
Average +6.08%Median +6.06%Worst year -36.00%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 92%. 1999 to 2011: 85%, 2012 to 2025: 79%.

Why it might happen

  • Cloud migration of enterprise software customers; Europe's largest software company.
  • Fourth-quarter deal signings matter most because of enterprise budget cycles.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: SAP. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.