Market SeasonalityFree alerts
Question

What is the best month for Live cattle?

Short answer

Since 2001, October has been the strongest month for Live cattle, averaging +2.80% and rising in 68% of 25 years. May has been the weakest, at -3.75%.

We rate the October pattern as strong and the May pattern as strong. December comes second at +1.62%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Live cattle, 2001 to 2026

+3.8%+1.9%-1.9%-3.8%Jan: average +0.68%, up in 61% of 23 yearsJanFeb: average +1.48%, up in 75% of 24 yearsFebMar: average -0.72%, up in 52% of 25 yearsMarApr: average +1.05%, up in 48% of 25 yearsAprMay: average -3.75%, up in 23% of 26 yearsMayJun: average +1.07%, up in 58% of 26 yearsJunJul: average +0.31%, up in 46% of 26 yearsJulAug: average +0.56%, up in 42% of 26 yearsAugSep: average +0.72%, up in 65% of 26 yearsSepOct: average +2.80%, up in 68% of 25 yearsOctNov: average +0.32%, up in 48% of 25 yearsNovDec: average +1.62%, up in 84% of 25 yearsDec
Live cattle: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1October+2.80%+2.22%68%strong
2December+1.62%+2.52%84%weak
3February+1.48%+2.53%75%strong
4June+1.07%+1.67%58%no clear pattern
5April+1.05%-0.02%48%no clear pattern
6September+0.72%+1.93%65%no clear pattern
7January+0.68%+0.97%61%weak
8August+0.56%-0.28%42%no clear pattern
9November+0.32%-0.02%48%no clear pattern
10July+0.31%-0.23%46%no clear pattern
11March-0.72%+0.08%52%no clear pattern
12May-3.75%-4.07%23%strong

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Apr 29 to May 24Opens in 203 days
92%lower in 24 years
Average -4.24%Median -4.87%Worst year +14.24%

Likely range of the hit rate 75% to 98%. 2002 to 2013: 92%, 2014 to 2025: 92%.

Jun 4 to Jul 29Opens in 239 days
79%higher in 24 years
Average +1.80%Median +2.83%Worst year -13.70%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 91%. 2002 to 2013: 83%, 2014 to 2025: 75%.

Aug 9 to Nov 2Open now, 25 days left
88%higher in 24 years
Average +5.74%Median +4.93%Worst year -9.75%

Likely range of the hit rate 70% to 96%. 2002 to 2013: 92%, 2014 to 2025: 83%.

Dec 11 to Dec 31Opens in 64 days
96%higher in 24 years
Average +3.10%Median +3.22%Worst year -17.50%

Likely range of the hit rate 80% to 99%. 2002 to 2013: 92%, 2014 to 2025: 100%.

Why it might happen

  • The cattle cycle takes years to rebuild herds; summer grilling demand and feed costs matter.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Live cattle. How to read these numbers: guide.

Alerts for Live cattle

Pick your markets. We email when something relevant moves. Free during launch.

Free alerts

Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.