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Question

What is the best month for Gasoline (RBOB)?

Short answer

Since 2001, March has been the strongest month for Gasoline (RBOB), averaging +13.12% and rising in 92% of 26 years. September has been the weakest, at -6.90%.

We rate the March pattern as strong and the September pattern as strong. April comes second at +4.58%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Gasoline (RBOB), 2000 to 2026

+13.1%+6.6%-6.6%-13.1%Jan: average +3.30%, up in 65% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +4.39%, up in 62% of 26 yearsFebMar: average +13.12%, up in 92% of 26 yearsMarApr: average +4.58%, up in 65% of 26 yearsAprMay: average +1.64%, up in 50% of 26 yearsMayJun: average -0.83%, up in 62% of 26 yearsJunJul: average +1.54%, up in 58% of 26 yearsJulAug: average +0.08%, up in 35% of 26 yearsAugSep: average -6.90%, up in 23% of 26 yearsSepOct: average -3.94%, up in 48% of 25 yearsOctNov: average -3.45%, up in 28% of 25 yearsNovDec: average +1.80%, up in 65% of 26 yearsDec
Gasoline (RBOB): average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1March+13.12%+13.14%92%strong
2April+4.58%+5.74%65%strong
3February+4.39%+5.45%62%strong
4January+3.30%+3.18%65%moderate
5December+1.80%+3.38%65%weak
6May+1.64%-0.15%50%no clear pattern
7July+1.54%+2.46%58%no clear pattern
8August+0.08%-1.82%35%no clear pattern
9June-0.83%+1.39%62%no clear pattern
10November-3.45%-2.98%28%strong
11October-3.94%-0.04%48%no clear pattern
12September-6.90%-8.43%23%strong

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 25 to Mar 6Opens in 109 days
100%higher in 25 years
Average +16.82%Median +13.50%Worst year +0.44%

Likely range of the hit rate 87% to 100%. 2001 to 2012: 100%, 2013 to 2025: 100%.

Mar 22 to Apr 16Opens in 165 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +4.43%Median +2.37%Worst year -9.17%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Aug 29 to Sep 13Opens in 325 days
96%lower in 25 years
Average -7.91%Median -8.12%Worst year +1.68%

Likely range of the hit rate 80% to 99%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 100%.

Sep 28 to Nov 17Open now, 40 days left
80%lower in 25 years
Average -7.74%Median -5.35%Worst year +22.40%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Why it might happen

  • The US summer driving season and the switch to summer-grade fuel each spring.
  • Hurricane season can shut Gulf Coast refineries between June and November.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Gasoline (RBOB). How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.