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Question

What is the best month for Aluminium?

Short answer

Since 1993, January has been the strongest month for Aluminium, averaging +1.91% and rising in 62% of 34 years. June has been the weakest, at -1.16%.

We rate the January pattern as strong and the June pattern as weak. February comes second at +0.97%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Aluminium, 1992 to 2026

+1.9%+1.0%-1.0%-1.9%Jan: average +1.91%, up in 62% of 34 yearsJanFeb: average +0.97%, up in 57% of 35 yearsFebMar: average +0.10%, up in 49% of 35 yearsMarApr: average +0.63%, up in 51% of 35 yearsAprMay: average -0.65%, up in 46% of 35 yearsMayJun: average -1.16%, up in 40% of 35 yearsJunJul: average +0.88%, up in 66% of 35 yearsJulAug: average +0.27%, up in 47% of 34 yearsAugSep: average -0.21%, up in 50% of 34 yearsSepOct: average +0.11%, up in 56% of 34 yearsOctNov: average +0.52%, up in 47% of 34 yearsNovDec: average +0.89%, up in 59% of 34 yearsDec
Aluminium: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1January+1.91%+1.44%62%strong
2February+0.97%+0.50%57%no clear pattern
3December+0.89%+1.24%59%no clear pattern
4July+0.88%+2.08%66%no clear pattern
5April+0.63%+1.04%51%no clear pattern
6November+0.52%-0.29%47%no clear pattern
7August+0.27%-0.23%47%no clear pattern
8October+0.11%+0.60%56%no clear pattern
9March+0.10%-0.02%49%no clear pattern
10September-0.21%-0.46%50%no clear pattern
11May-0.65%-0.44%46%no clear pattern
12June-1.16%-1.14%40%weak

Why it might happen

  • Power-intensive smelting links prices to energy costs; China produces more than half of world supply.
  • Tariffs and sanctions on Russian metal reshape trade flows.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Aluminium. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.