The January barometer
After 61 positive Januaries since 1929, the S&P 500 averaged +8.99% over the rest of the year and rose in 79% of cases. After 36 negative Januaries it averaged +2.10% and rose in 58%.
A positive January has been followed by a better rest of year on average, but a negative January has still been followed by gains more often than not. Treat the barometer as a mild tilt in the odds.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.