The bitcoin halving cycle
The most recent halving was 900 days ago. In the cycles in our data, bitcoin peaked 525 days, 546 days, 534 days after the halving.
| Halving | Price | 90 days | 180 days | 365 days | 540 days | Peak (within 2 years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2016 | 651 | -5.20% | +55.70% | +286.90% | +2,074.70% | +2,895.00% |
| May 11, 2020 | 8,602 | +35.70% | +72.40% | +559.20% | +635.00% | +685.00% |
| April 20, 2024 | 64,994 | +2.60% | +3.70% | +31.00% | +77.20% | +92.00% |
Every four years the reward for mining a block halves, cutting new supply. Past cycles were dominated by retail flows; since US spot ETFs launched, institutional flows and global liquidity carry more weight, so the cycle may behave differently. Three cycles are too few for statistics; read this as history. Our data starts in late 2014, so the 2012 halving is not included. Next halving: 2028 (estimated from block schedule).
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.