Market SeasonalityFree alerts
Question

What is the best month for WTI crude oil?

Short answer

Since 2001, February has been the strongest month for WTI crude oil, averaging +3.54% and rising in 73% of 26 years. November has been the weakest, at -2.66%.

We rate the February pattern as strong and the November pattern as no clear pattern. May comes second at +2.95%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

WTI crude oil, 2000 to 2026

+3.5%+1.8%-1.8%-3.5%Jan: average +1.99%, up in 54% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +3.54%, up in 73% of 26 yearsFebMar: average +2.59%, up in 58% of 26 yearsMarApr: average +2.33%, up in 65% of 26 yearsAprMay: average +2.95%, up in 46% of 26 yearsMayJun: average +2.11%, up in 65% of 26 yearsJunJul: average +1.55%, up in 69% of 26 yearsJulAug: average -0.71%, up in 50% of 26 yearsAugSep: average -0.97%, up in 41% of 27 yearsSepOct: average -1.77%, up in 46% of 26 yearsOctNov: average -2.66%, up in 42% of 26 yearsNovDec: average +0.26%, up in 58% of 26 yearsDec
WTI crude oil: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1February+3.54%+5.21%73%strong
2May+2.95%-0.57%46%no clear pattern
3March+2.59%+4.93%58%no clear pattern
4April+2.33%+3.29%65%weak
5June+2.11%+3.76%65%weak
6January+1.99%+1.01%54%no clear pattern
7July+1.55%+0.62%69%weak
8December+0.26%+2.98%58%no clear pattern
9August-0.71%-0.76%50%no clear pattern
10September-0.97%-3.92%41%no clear pattern
11October-1.77%-1.27%46%no clear pattern
12November-2.66%-2.81%42%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 9 to Apr 9Opens in 94 days
84%higher in 25 years
Average +7.51%Median +8.25%Worst year -57.87%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

May 3 to May 18Opens in 208 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +3.93%Median +3.20%Worst year -19.47%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 58%, 2013 to 2025: 100%.

Jun 6 to Jul 21Opens in 242 days
76%higher in 25 years
Average +2.12%Median +3.19%Worst year -18.69%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 69%. Weaker in recent years.

Dec 9 to Dec 24Opens in 63 days
84%higher in 25 years
Average +2.08%Median +3.18%Worst year -19.16%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Why it might happen

  • OPEC+ output decisions, US shale production and inventories reported every Wednesday by the EIA.
  • The US driving season lifts gasoline demand from Memorial Day to Labor Day; refinery maintenance in spring and autumn cuts crude demand.
  • Geopolitical risk in the Middle East and Russia, sanctions and shipping disruptions.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: WTI crude oil. How to read these numbers: guide.

Alerts for WTI

Pick your markets. We email when something relevant moves. Free during launch.

Free alerts

Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.